The age of cheap Chinese stuff is ending in the USA? [includes politics, but shouldn't]

[marvin78]

..while you're buying as much asian ebike goods as you can, i also recommend picking up a GPU..

Acer and Asrock make B580 locally in the US don't they And all dies are made in Taiwan ( TSMC ).

If people think things are bad now, wait till Orange Guy doesn't understand that a weak Ukraine 'peace' will just give China the go-ahead to move in on Taiwan..

 

[raylo32]

LOL, yes. There is so much he doesn't understand. Only like literally everything.

I need to get one of those B580s for a new build. I have everything except that, a case, and power supply waiting. No rush, though. I am holding out until I can get one at MSRP.

Acer and Asrock make B580 locally in the US don't they And all dies are made in Taiwan ( TSMC ).

If people think things are bad now, wait till Orange Guy doesn't understand that a weak Ukraine 'peace' will just give China the go-ahead to move in on Taiwan..

 

[marvin78]

The cards aren't crap, so they are going for over msrp. If there really will be hard tarrifs on gpu's though, I am fully expecting Intel to gain a lot of market share. Especially now that this gen seems pretty decent for up to 1440p.

I remember convincing buying things like an 6800LE which I would try and unlock just so I could get the most value for my money. It's sad to realize those days are gone, the best you can do is try to buy 'smart'. Like a 1080ti, the lifetime that card managed to stay performant enough to not force upgrades on lots of people... and my RX580 which I'm still using lol.. right now.. eight years after release.

 

[neptronix]

Acer and Asrock make B580 locally in the US don't they And all dies are made in Taiwan ( TSMC ).

Hey, it's a start. I think those cards are going to be like 1-3% of marketshare. I'll be impressed when i can buy a 5090 with a made in the USA stamp on it. I'm just glad there's some motion in this direction at all.

If people think things are bad now, wait till Orange Guy doesn't understand that a weak Ukraine 'peace' will just give China the go-ahead to move in on Taiwan..

I have bad news for you.. USA started showing increasings amount of weakness.. China's govt knows they can overpower us... they continually compromise our government and corporate systems, and our government doesn't retaliate... they continue to bully our Asian allies.. and they get away with it.

USA is even dependent on Chinese drones for fighting today's wars.. we don't have production capacity for that.. we gave it all to China. China's leader could affect the outcome of proxy wars we are waging with the stroke of a pen.

I wish the answer was so easy as.. hit the undo button on the election and put brown gal in.. and fight some proxy wars longer to display more strength.. and now China stops being a growing global threat.

I don't think Uncle Sam gets out of this situation unscathed and i'm sorry that Uncle Euro will get dragged along for the ride.

 

[marvin78]

I don't think Uncle Sam gets out of this situation unscathed and i'm sorry that Uncle Euro will get dragged along for the ride.

I remember being told how China was 'decades away' from being a threat. Things changed quickly.

As to Europe getting dragged along, I am afraid that's on us not on the US. We should have looked further ahead, and made ourselves less reliant on the US.

On the other hand, my country alone still has a large reliance, 3% of our imports come from the US ( and 1.2% of US imports come from us ). Our biggest trade partners are more local, like Germany and France.. but if their economies are shrinking so does the throughput through say Rotterdam ( cargo ) and Schiphol ( one of Europe's biggest passenger hubs ).

Trade wars will not benefit anyone, especially 'the little men' like us.

We do have a little ace up our sleeves I guess, though not sure if our government has the balls to use. We do have control over the world most advanced lithography machines.

 

[raylo32]

Especially lately now that China has developed deeper ties with Russia... and North Korea. And Iran is part of this not so loose axis of evil. And they are all working hard to destabilize the US and EU by any and all means. This latest election and the rise of the populist right in EU is all a result and shows that they have been very successful.

As for the advantage we have in litho machines, that is not going to last forever, especially if the idiot oligarchs dispose of pesky regulations like import and export controls. Which they could well do because there would be lots of $$ to be made and that is all they really care about.

I remember being told how China was 'decades away' from being a threat. Things changed quickly.

We do have a little ace up our sleeves I guess, though not sure if our government has the balls to use. We do have control over the world most advanced lithography machines.

 

[marvin78]

This latest election and the rise of the populist right in EU is all a result and shows that they have been very successful.

I fully agree.

As for the advantage we have in litho machines, that is not going to last forever.

SMIC has been closing the gap, they even have a DUV process outside of our export restrictions. But they are stuck at 7nm atm, while TSMC is already at 3nm finfet.

The issue is more that the differences in node's can be compensated for by throwing more hardware at a problem. Thus even a technological struggle in the end can be decided by sheer manufacturing prowess. If China has a 30% deficiency in processing power per die area / watt they 'only' need 30% more hardware to have performance parity.

I think this is more likely then China suddenly coming up with a better domestic process then ASML, especially with all the export restrictions. Their current 7nm node is more limited then the 7nm node with ASML machines.

 

[raylo32]

Exactly, and for macro scaled military systems, like ships, bombers, etc. there is plenty of room to contain any needed extra hardware. Maybe they will not yet be able to miniaturize their ICBM and SLBM nukes, but I don't really know about that. And that is also a physics problem.

The issue is more that the differences in node's can be compensated for by throwing more hardware at a problem. Thus even a technological struggle in the end can be decided by sheer manufacturing prowess. If China has a 30% deficiency in processing power per die area / watt they 'only' need 30% more hardware to have performance parity.

 

[neptronix]

I remember being told how China was 'decades away' from being a threat. Things changed quickly.

Nice story to tell your citizens i guess. Manufacturing historically always made nation building kinda money.

As to Europe getting dragged along, I am afraid that's on us not on the US. We should have looked further ahead, and made ourselves less reliant on the US.

Yeah, you guys are going to have to fund your own military i think. Uncle Sam's debt level is close to what it was during world war 2, except we're not fighting a world war, so that's pretty bad. There's a lot of financial pressure to stop being the world's policeman.

Our biggest trade partners are more local, like Germany and France.. but if their economies are shrinking so does the throughput through say Rotterdam ( cargo ) and Schiphol ( one of Europe's biggest passenger hubs ).

Huge shame to see what Germany's government did to itself and it's people lately. Do you think there's any chance of that being reversed? I do worry about the EU due to things like that.

It's time to start building shit again. Both here in the USA and in the EU.

 

[marvin78]

I don't think Germany's car industry can be saved. I also don't think AfD is good for Germany or the world.. and FPO is terrible for Austria.. and the world.

But we'll have to deal with it. Just as the world has to deal with Wilders as the leader of our ruling party ( not pm... no other party would allow that.. but they're more then happy to get into a government with them ).

As you say, there is no production capacity left here, at least not which produces goods we actually want to buy ( we all want the cheap CN stuff ).

This whole tarrifs idea of 'well we will force them to buy domestic products if we make everything else even more expensive' is akin to game developers arguing that any download on The Pirate Bay is lost revenue for them.

Lots of people will stop consuming certain goods, when they can't get the same value for their money.

So I don't think tarrifs will increase domestic production. At least not in my lifetime.

 

[neptronix]

I feel like we're repeating the same sequence of events that built up to world war 2. But with different players. It's spooky.
Peak economy -> viral scare -> recession -> war

Somewhere in that cycle, people show up to vote for the opposite of whoever's been ruling them for decades.

I focus on what i can do to mitigate the effects of society going insane around me. I don't believe i can stop this cyclical insanity most societies go through.

My call is, hoard Chinese electronics and high end GPUs... lol

 

[marvin78]

I'm not 100% convinced we're under way to global warfare. I am still hoping that even for China, the benefits of 'winning' a conflict now but having to deal with the political fallout in the long run, will be less then the benefits of trying to grow economies naturally and remain a 'reliable trading partner'.

But it all depends on the US. That Lex Friedmann interview... 'what if the US left NATO' ... well yeah Lex, if you DO want WWIII to start, that's an excellent idea.

The other instigator for the next big war, isn't politics ( directly ) but climate change. And again that hinges on the US. The costs of doing nothing now is attractive to some, but I am sure they would all change their minds when they realize that their crying about 'immigration crisis' and what not will be nothing compared to what the world will be looking at if we don't fix our emissions. It's not that people will suddenly freeze to death, or get baked by the sun in some new sudden dessert. Instead it will be continuously failing crop rotations because of shifting agricultural zone's, famine's and a migration crisis multiple times as large as we have now. Most immigration now is done because of economic reasons, not 100% survival. When it becomes survival.. I would hope the world be humane enough to take care of those who can no longer sustain themselves.. but I'm realistic enough to know this isn't going to happen.

 

[raylo32]

Yes but this attitude is penny wise and pound foolish. Sure the EU needs to step up their defense capabilities, but if we just use that as an excuse to walk away it will lead to a breakdown in the stable world order that made the US a wealthy country. The way things are headed to tariffs, a trade war, or even a hot war would cost far more in money and maybe lives than our NATO commitments. As far as "making things here again", I just don't see the desire and work ethic or the cost effectiveness. And not many young folks are interested in mfg jobs at large companies. They all want to be influencers, musicians, reality show stars, "entrepreneurs", or, when that doesn't turn out, meth heads... or go back home to mommy.

Yeah, you guys are going to have to fund your own military i think. Uncle Sam's debt level is close to what it was during world war 2, except we're not fighting a world war, so that's pretty bad. There's a lot of financial pressure to stop being the world's policeman.

 

[neptronix]

Well, i don't make the rules or the politics. i didn't vote for any of this. Or any of the things before that.
just saying, that's what USA's govt is likely to do.

But i will stand firm on:
We need to build stuff again, and fast. The consequences of fully economically delinking from China without a plan is a lot to bear.

 

[amberwolf]

Rustbrain doesn't care; he's already got money and power over people; he's just into this whole thing to make as much more as he can, and get power over as many more people as possible so he can screw them over, and doesn't give a crap if the world falls apart in the process.
[/politicalrant]

 

[gromike]

To bring back our industrial strength to what it once was would be a herculean task, and at the moment nobody is up for that.
Being an-ex mariner I have noticed our miniscule shipbuilding/repair capability. That doesn't look good for us in the event of some future naval war.

 

[stancecoke]

Huge shame to see what Germany's government did to itself and it's people lately.

Sorry, what do you know about the German government? They have done a good job. They had to face problems like Corona and the Ukrainia war, that the conservative government before never had. During their 18 years of conservative government, they blocked any activity of extending the grid, building new powerplants to replace the nuclear plants. The decision to switch off nuclear power was done by Mrs. Merkel in 2011 after Fokushima. The recent government has nothing to do with that decision....

 

[marvin78]

I read that reply as in 'It's a shame the state of the German economy' I didn't read anything political in it. If anything 'recently' would point towards the rising up of the AfD.

Also, we can't blame corona for the economy, I mean we can when looking at it alone but we can't in comparison with China which was just as hard hit? The failing of the German car industry is not just based on the pandemic, though that did tank sales, the failure is in their ability to compete with cheap Chinese electric cars. And in making cars which people actually would want to buy. Most people would be more then happy with a 25k Chinese car when the equivalent ( not even better ) alternative is at least twice as expensive. And as

The German government needing to step in, and even then the announced closing of so much production capacity, is because as Raylo32 pointed out -> in order to make price competitive products, they would have to pay wages which are not attractive for employees based on our higher costs of living ( I have more faith in people, I think economics are driving them and not just all wanting to be influencers ... then again, if you translate that with: just wanting to be rich and not do much for it, that's still economics and no different then when I was a kid. We didn't want to be influencers, but we did want whatever it was we thought would allow us to live in relative luxury for the least amount off effort.

It's just that we didn't have social media, we didn't constantly see this lie about people living in luxury without doing much if anything for it. So lots of people eventually just 'accepted reality' put their heads down and did whatever it was which was available to do to generate a living.

..just my observation of society as a whole, wrong or right as I might be. Young people are not worse, they just have more information available and need more guidance in dealing with it.

 

[fill]

 

[raylo32]

We need to build what we can and what makes sense, for sure. But saying that we need to somehow be totally self contained and self sufficient across the board is not possible or advisable. Trade is all about leveraging the strengths, weaknesses and resources of all partners. That lifts everyone... at least in theory.

Well, i don't make the rules or the politics. i didn't vote for any of this. Or any of the things before that.
just saying, that's what USA's govt is likely to do.

But i will stand firm on:
We need to build stuff again, and fast. The consequences of fully economically delinking from China without a plan is a lot to bear.

 

[raylo32]

And, BTW, while visiting our local MicroCenter superstore (how cool it is to have one of those, still!) for a case and power supply for my new PC build, I found an Intel Arc B580. I had not expected them to be in stock so I didn't look at first. But then when I was checking out with the other stuff and a guy in line had one so I asked him and he said they were selling them at MSRP. So, I quickly went back and scored the last one. . Not the highest end card by any means but fine for me. I am not sure where Intel makes these, however.

 

[raylo32]

Yeah, people do a lot of things because of economics. Most things, actually. In the US we have some structural problems that make all this so much worse. First, housing costs are ridiculous. I laugh when I hear someone say in a postivie way how much their home is now worth. But that is funny money, since if you sell and move in most cases you have to spend it on an equally overpriced property.

Meanwhile, someone starting out in a mfg job or some other trade can't afford to buy a home. And many can't even afford the rents anymore. Private equity buying up rental properties, VRBO and such spiking demand for investment properties that just drives housing prices up further. And tech makes it easy for landlords to collude in fixing and raising rents. They are trying to crack down on that some but it it probaby hopeless.

Then an issue unique to the US is health care, where many folks are just on their own and those costs could be like a mortgage payment or go without and pay out of pocket.... something you Euros at least don't have to deal with.

You hear a lot about "regulations" driving up the cost of mfg here. No, the primary driver is and always has been the cost of people. And people need to have health care and a place to live and all that costs $$$.

The German government needing to step in, and even then the announced closing of so much production capacity, is because as Raylo32 pointed out -> in order to make price competitive products, they would have to pay wages which are not attractive for employees based on our higher costs of living ( I have more faith in people, I think economics are driving them and not just all wanting to be influencers ... then again, if you translate that with: just wanting to be rich and not do much for it, that's still economics and no different then when I was a kid. We didn't want to be influencers, but we did want whatever it was we thought would allow us to live in relative luxury for the least amount off effort.

 

[neptronix]

Sorry, what do you know about the German government? They have done a good job. They had to face problems like Corona and the Ukrainia war, that the conservative government before never had. During their 18 years of conservative government, they blocked any activity of extending the grid, building new powerplants to replace the nuclear plants. The decision to switch off nuclear power was done by Mrs. Merkel in 2011 after Fokushima. The recent government has nothing to do with that decision....

Okay, you understand what i'm talking about then. There's been a long series of mis-steps related to energy.
This is still adversely affecting manufacturing capability and Germany is going in the direction of de-industrialization.
That's bad because it's part of the country's core competencies and income stream.

 

[neptronix]

We need to build what we can and what makes sense, for sure. But saying that we need to somehow be totally self contained and self sufficient across the board is not possible or advisable. Trade is all about leveraging the strengths, weaknesses and resources of all partners. That lifts everyone... at least in theory.

Well, it's not my call if we're going to economically segregate.
You have today's USA president, tomorrow's USA president, and the leader of China all pushing things in the direction of economic segregation. So, like it or not, economic segregation is probably happening.

China produces a majority of non-food goods that the USA purchases. We either build production capacity, or we go without most of the goods we currently consume. Solving that problem is going to be easier on society than not solving that problem.

 

[Chalo]

China produces a majority of non-food goods that the USA purchases. We either build production capacity, or we go without most of the goods we currently consume. Solving that problem is going to be easier on society than not solving that problem.

Whittling down USA's rampant overconsumption will pay more dividends in the long term (to everybody) than maintaining it. So that's a point in favor of both misguided tariffs and economic collapse.