LockH
1 PW
"Peak Oil: Myth Or Coming Reality?"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/peak-oil-myth-coming-reality-221331835.html
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/peak-oil-myth-coming-reality-221331835.html
The death of Peak Oil = The death of green energy?
- Thread starter deronmoped
- Start date
Gloop
10 W
I've read about 5-10 books on peak oil, and I have to say depletion curves of natural resources are very natural phenomenon.
Supposedly the peak of conventional light crude oil was around 2008, and since then conventionals have declined while heavy oils, shales, and fracking have kept production near plateaued. Oil production has been plateued since 2004 despite increases in well drilling. In a world where many lower class people are trying to move into automobiles in India and China, oil production needs to go up. But this is not possible. This is why Obama is creating new fuel efficiency standards and clean energy, to deal with oil depletion as well as climate change.
This is why China is building the largest coal to oil production facilities in the world. Because coal will not peak for at least another 2 decades, while conventional oil has peaked already.
Some people liked to claim that depletion of oil will help stop global warming, but this is not true because we will make more use of coal.
Anyway over the next 2-3 decades I expect oil production to decrease dramatically, however I also expect abrupt global warming to take place because of methane hydrates. Together these two shocks will precipitate the collapse of global agriculture and consequently the end of civilization.
And the 1970s oil shock in the USA was real, the USA peaked in oil production since the 1970s and has been importing more and more ever since. Eventually, and according to Matt Simmons, Saudi Arabia is at or near peak.
And world oil production has been stagnated since 2004, despite increases in well drilling.
Supposedly the peak of conventional light crude oil was around 2008, and since then conventionals have declined while heavy oils, shales, and fracking have kept production near plateaued. Oil production has been plateued since 2004 despite increases in well drilling. In a world where many lower class people are trying to move into automobiles in India and China, oil production needs to go up. But this is not possible. This is why Obama is creating new fuel efficiency standards and clean energy, to deal with oil depletion as well as climate change.
This is why China is building the largest coal to oil production facilities in the world. Because coal will not peak for at least another 2 decades, while conventional oil has peaked already.
Some people liked to claim that depletion of oil will help stop global warming, but this is not true because we will make more use of coal.
Anyway over the next 2-3 decades I expect oil production to decrease dramatically, however I also expect abrupt global warming to take place because of methane hydrates. Together these two shocks will precipitate the collapse of global agriculture and consequently the end of civilization.
And the 1970s oil shock in the USA was real, the USA peaked in oil production since the 1970s and has been importing more and more ever since. Eventually, and according to Matt Simmons, Saudi Arabia is at or near peak.
And world oil production has been stagnated since 2004, despite increases in well drilling.
megacycle
100 kW
From the graph, can see that the why the USA secured its oil imports.
What is the latest EROI on extracting oil from wells and tar sand, real terms, not the phony documents produced by vested interests, that don't include all the factors of wasted energy in extraction, now we also must include the costs of environmental degredation and health concerns, to look at the viablity of oil production, for fuel production.
The world needs to concentrate on moving over to all electric transportation, mandated energy efficiency and alternate forms of energy production, renewable and I think that nuclear will have to play a part, even though it is problematic as Gen IV's must be researched and built to burn up existing waste stockpiles and efficiently use uranium, instead of conventional nuclear which are wasteful, dangerously so, in comparison.
What is the latest EROI on extracting oil from wells and tar sand, real terms, not the phony documents produced by vested interests, that don't include all the factors of wasted energy in extraction, now we also must include the costs of environmental degredation and health concerns, to look at the viablity of oil production, for fuel production.
The world needs to concentrate on moving over to all electric transportation, mandated energy efficiency and alternate forms of energy production, renewable and I think that nuclear will have to play a part, even though it is problematic as Gen IV's must be researched and built to burn up existing waste stockpiles and efficiently use uranium, instead of conventional nuclear which are wasteful, dangerously so, in comparison.
arkmundi
10 MW
Pairs to my understanding of likely future scenarios on the basis of well documented trend lines. David Korten called it the "perfect storm", pointing to the triple emerging crises: energy, climate & financial. Guy McPherson calls his web site "Nature Bats Last" for a reason. We mere mortals still can not fool Mother Nature. Bill McKibben titled his seminal book "The End of Nature", meaning the Nature upon which life depends on Planet Eaarth. But Nature is Biology, chemistry, physics and a whole lot more. There are physical laws that can not be violated without upsetting an equilibrium and throwing a system into a different steady-state.Gloop said:
The question everyone who cares needs to be asking is what state and will that allow for a continued mammalian presence? Maybe the new genetics can fashion some new advanced human-like life form that has a chance of withstanding >6-degrees-C average surface temperatures. Our present biology will not survive. I'd be OK if its merely a loss of so-called civilization and a paring down of human population to the 1-2 billion of us suggested as possibly sustainable on a depleted planet. But the loss of all intelligent life because of the collapse of the biosphere - that is... well, there is no word for it. The Anthropocene will certainly suck and the era will end quickly as the anthro in it disappears. Maybe then there will be some subsequent era, like the Rodentiacene?
Thanks for the graphs
Less than 4, but the numbers are not published because the data is controlled.megacycle said:
kd8cgo
100 W
arkmundi said:
You could say this is a Rodentiacene, as far as evolutionary biology is concerned! Although I agree, I tend to think pairing down is headlining center stage of the main event, and I don't doubt the throngs will at first be coddled in a totalitarian cocoon of "life-saving mandates" and global [strike]corporate[/strike] governance initiatives before most dare take a look behind the curtain. There's a lot of hyperbole out there, and MacPherson et al are singing some of those tunes, but there is plenty to be concerned with just looking at the evidence we do have. A brief perusing of the annals of history doesn't leave much in the way of confidence in our species handling of crises. It is simultaneously exciting and dreadful that some of us alive today will perhaps witness the next (possibly last) chapter of our little story.
As to our thread title "The death of Peak Oil" and its associated hand waving peak demand saves the day popular press punditry, one can only sigh and wonder. There was no death of anything, someone just pulled the rug out from under a bunch of numskull high-rollers sitting at the betting tables. Takes a minute to get back on their feet. At least they've had some content-free sensational recession press to keep the preoccupied herds looking the other way for, what, nearing a decade now? High stakes poker is being played, and we plebs are just a few small chips on the table. Doesn't matter where the chips fall, just that they have more than the guy sitting next to them. So long as humans are preoccupied with getting and maintaining power, and the great many others continually bend to that desire, the story will write itself. The absolute number of people, or species on the planet, or dollars in an account is completely irrelevant to the folks calling the shots, they are concerned with relative matters.
My suggestion? Don't put yourself willingly at the mercy of others, do what you can, and sit back and enjoy the ride. Everybody wakes up one day, sloughs off the clouds of propaganda, bread, and circuses' obscuring their vision and makes the necessary changes, crisis averted. Relegate these things to the provenance of charismatic leaders vying endlessly in that eternal struggle for power, and watch the world burn. Worse, voluntarily cede MORE power in the interests of safety, security, whatever the fearmonger's flavor of the day is, and watch the fireworks. Not that any of us have a choice in the matter beyond our own tacit consent by participation - another topic for another day, although I recommend Lessig's lecture series "Institutional Corruption" as a primer to that question: Where'd your democracy (republic) go?
arkmundi
10 MW
My posit of a possible subsequent Rodentiacene era was me being hopeful. Small burrowing highly intelligent rodents with fast reproductive turnover, loosing their hair and somehow surviving in the face of catastrophic temperature rise. In a million years, those creatures may grow-up again with brains large enough for abstract thought. They'll dig up these strange looking fossils, tools and so forth and ponder what kind of creature it was, standing up on two legs with a large skull and ten fingers.
kd8cgo
100 W
Imagine a future intelligent species (or let's say, some kind of post-collapse human survivors) trying to bootstrap a complex society (where archeology would be possible), on a planet where:
Perhaps ancient urban centers and landfills could be the "mines" of the future, should the remnants be discovered...
Germane to the topic of complexity, some interesting reading can be found in Joseph Tainter's somewhat dated "The Collapse of Complex Societies" - a rather thought provoking read from an anthropologist and historian's perspective. (Certainly NOT Jared Diamond's work!)
I wish any hypothetical future "them" some luck!
- No highly energy dense fuel source is seeping out of the ground, or found in large exposed seams, awaiting discovery (Do long term climate and geologic cycles predispose burying organic matter and forming these compounds, sufficient for round 2?)
- No high purity metal ores are found on or near the surface in large, homogeneous boulders or seams (Perhaps some chance asteroid impacts with some new treasure along the way?)
- Current infrastructure has rotted and decayed, along with the associated knowledge containing artifacts
Perhaps ancient urban centers and landfills could be the "mines" of the future, should the remnants be discovered...
Germane to the topic of complexity, some interesting reading can be found in Joseph Tainter's somewhat dated "The Collapse of Complex Societies" - a rather thought provoking read from an anthropologist and historian's perspective. (Certainly NOT Jared Diamond's work!)
I wish any hypothetical future "them" some luck!
megacycle
100 kW
Reckon the money/power megalomainics who really run things and treat the common man with contemp and condescension, will look to the easiest option of protecting their interest in their own future by depopulation, a combination of creating situations of scarcity, manafactured disease, wars, and whatever clandestine methods they presently use on the small scale.
