The death of Peak Oil = The death of green energy?

arkmundi said:
1moonraker-431.jpg

Drax, of course!
Hugo Drax said:
Frederick Gray! What a surprise. And in distinguished company, all wearing gas masks. You must excuse me, gentlemen, not being English, I sometimes find your sense of humor rather difficult to follow!
You have arrived at a propitious moment, considered to be your country's one indisputable contribution to Western Civilization: Afternoon tea.
First there was the dream, now there is reality. Here in the untainted cradle of the heavens will be created a new super race... From their first day on Earth they will be able to look up and know that there is law and order in the heavens.

Drax's main problem was that he wanted the future generations to think of him as some kind of God. His idea to reduce population was kind of cool, although it was a cruel method (essentially choking to death in pain and fear...albeit quickly).

What was never mentioned was the survivors on earth. Drax thought that he would repopulate the earth with perfectly healthy, intelligent humans, a new super race, as he called it. (To his credit, he wasn't racist. He had diversity up there). But what about the people on earth who didn't die? It's silly to think that all 6 billion (that was the number then) would be in open, vulnerable situations. Mountain climbers with oxygen, submarine crews, scientists in labs, passengers in jets, etc. would inevitably have some rate of survival, and they might be really upset when the "super humans" in yellow suits came in for a landing at the large air-strips required for a space shuttle to land.

I know if I were an airline pilot who landed after the gas wore off, finding my own family dead, I'd be out for revenge. I'd get other survivors, go to the nearest Bass Pro Shop, load up on weapons, and get ready for Drax to land those helpless, vulnerable gliders.


Drax's plan had a lot of holes in it.

Not to mention he had a twisted idea of how to get rid of James Bond (locking him in an underground launch pad). Drax was an idiot about Bond. He tried to have him killed several times, but never just killed him.

Movies!
 
MikeFairbanks said:
Drax's plan had a lot of holes in it.

Not to mention he had a twisted idea of how to get rid of James Bond (locking him in an underground launch pad). Drax was an idiot about Bond. He tried to have him killed several times, but never just killed him.

Movies!

Old 'Saturday Night Live' bit where several Bond Baddies have a book out together ('What NOT to do if you Capture James Bond.') about conquering the world and their doing the talkshow circuit. One of them says "If you catch James Bond, KILL HIM." Something to the effect of 'Don't be clever, don't use a slow moving laser, just grab a gun and shoot him.'
 
Drax would have been a lot more successful by not giving that dumb speech.

Besides, it would suck if all those awesome, beautiful people went back to breed and told their kids, "Always speak slowly, and deliberately. And never engage in any humor."


My favorite Bond will always be Roger Moore. He was a lot more successful than all the other Bonds, and I aint talking about his job. ;)
 
EU to move to minimize emmissions by 40% and 27% renewables by 2030.
http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/2030/index_en.htm
EU leaders agreed on 23 October 2014 the domestic 2030 greenhouse gas reduction target of at least 40% compared to 1990.

I'm in SA Australia, we're aiming for 50% by 2020, we're already passed 30%.
In the lucky position on the roaring forties for wind generation.
Our progressive state government are good, but the feds are real jerk off's in the pockets of big coal, oil & gas.
 
fechter said:
arkmundi said:

Kind of sucks that the top 9 out of 10 states are like the most cloudy.

Not entirely, if they use clever tracking technology and cells that work better with diffuse radiation, like polycrystalline or better still the new sliver cells created here in Australia. http://www.abc.net.au/science/news/stories/2006/1805365.htm.
There mostly being used by the military here at the moment, as the slivers can be made ultrathin and flexible.

The only problem with diffuse, scattered radiation, is its generally maxing on a horizontal plane, keeping them clean could be an issue, but trackers would help with that and could return to a steep self cleaning (rain/dew) at night.
 
Crude is down to $70.

Are we anywhere near peak oil? It seems there is no problem finding and extracting it.
 
veloman said:
Hit under $50 today.

Awesome! This should end all the oil-shale related atrocities! Anyone know if the mass earth poisoning exercises up north have ended yet?

Hopefully OPEC keeps the price low enough to ruin all competing oil suppliers, then shoots up to >$500/barrel.

It's neat to get to watch the oil industry self-destruct. I had once assumed it would require help to be destroyed.
 
Well, yes, since everyone must do their part to bring about the end of the petroleum era and bring on the awesome solar, light electric and super smart era that we here at ES have come to love and embrace. I would have thought that the superior attractiveness of our preferred modality of transit would have been enough. But people are still stuck. Maybe a tough-love approach?
 
liveforphysics said:
veloman said:
Hit under $50 today.

Awesome! This should end all the oil-shale related atrocities! Anyone know if the mass earth poisoning exercises up north have ended yet?

Hopefully OPEC keeps the price low enough to ruin all competing oil suppliers, then shoots up to >$500/barrel.

It's neat to get to watch the oil industry self-destruct. I had once assumed it would require help to be destroyed.

I can't help wondering where the USA would be in our inevitable development if we'd devoted the same resources to sustainable energy and efficiency technologies that we expended on fracking.
 
Chalo said:
I can't help wondering where the USA would be in our inevitable development if we'd devoted the same resources to sustainable energy and efficiency technologies that we expended on fracking.

Cutting resources down to what is expended on fracking would doom green sustainability. I am shocked, SHOCKED that you would suggest such a thing. Fracking can take as little as three days, virtually never reaching a full two weeks. It's a cheap activity, they are currently fracking fields they won't use much of the capacity of because they need to make a discovery to lock in the lease, the high production rate at the beginning will recover all the lease, exploration, and of course fracking costs. If it's a good wet gas well it might remain in production 20-30 years because of additional plant products, such as ethane. Otherwise they'll cap it shortly and keep it in reserve if they market grows and they have to frack all over again, as you fill the old hole with concrete and it's cheaper and easier to water jet again.
 
Dauntless said:
Chalo said:
I can't help wondering where the USA would be in our inevitable development if we'd devoted the same resources to sustainable energy and efficiency technologies that we expended on fracking.

Cutting resources down to what is expended on fracking would doom green sustainability. I am shocked, SHOCKED that you would suggest such a thing. Fracking can take as little as three days, virtually never reaching a full two weeks. It's a cheap activity, [...]

A quick look at Google finds that there are over 1.1 million active oil and gas wells in the USA. Estimates run up to 95% of them having been hydraulicalkly fractured. The most detailed estimate of cost to frack a well that I found suggested a total drill & frack cost of $8-12 million per well in the Bakken field, $6-8 million in the Eagle Ford field. About half of that cost is asserted to be related to drilling, about half to fracking.

So to be conservative, let's say only half of those wells were fracked. And of those, we'll accept the lowest figure suggested by the above data of $3 million each to hydraulically fracture them. That yields a number of 1.65 TRILLION dollars.

Yeah, that sure would put a dent in development funds for green tech. Not.
 
I have heard a claim if the oil subsidies and US military budget for a single year were applied towards building one massive solar facility in Nevada, the US could supply all of it's own energy needs as well as Canada and Mexico's.

Someone want to work a quick calc on that to see if it's in the ballpark?
 
First of all fracking IS drilling. It's not some separate procedure. The cost rises and falls by certain factors, such as the depth you drill and what you have to pay for water for what is essentially a water jet cutter. They pay a huge premium in California. Then there's the (Virtual) egg nog (An actual approach used) or whatever 0.2% they add to the 99.8% water. I don't know what percentage are fracked, which is a side drilling method that has made available much oil and gas which down drilling and slant drilling has been unable to reach.The government only posts one year (2007) where the AVERAGE per well topped $3 million that I've ever found. Usually it's under $2 million, even all the way down to $1 million each on average. While your numbers are excessive for the cost of a single well, there's definitely NOT 1.1 million wells drilled each year. That's what definitely makes your total a "NOT." Wells can be active for decades.

Meanwhile, according to PEW;

. . . .Clean energy investment in renewable sources, biofuels, smart energy, and energy storage fell 11 percent in 2013, to $254 billion. . .over the past two years, clean energy investment has declined 20 percent from a 2011 record of $318 billion.

So it is doing as you're suggesting and dropping toward the level spent on fracking. Let's hope it doesn't get any closer.

One number you might like is $17.01 BOE, "Barrels of Oil Equivalent." While I've never seen it explained, I take it to mean that's the cost per barrel by the time you've pumped it out of the ground. $13.38 on land, $49.54 offshore. Of course we're always getting numbers from a few years ago. Would they be bothering to pump from offshore at this price?

Oh, and there IS a $9 billion dollar smart grid subsidy, along with green energy subsidies. No point in singling out oil.

Is Renewable Energy a "Good" Investment?

In the world of corporate finance, solar, wind and biomass technologies may be on the verge of crossing a key threshold.

By Evan I. Schwartz on January 6, 2011

When deciding where to invest your money, you weigh the potential return against the risk. Money market accounts offer minimal risk but modest returns, while corporate stocks typically produce much higher returns at the cost of greater risk. Corporations considering major capital outlays essentially weigh the same factors, except for one caveat: low expected returns are rarely tolerated, because they act as a drag on the company’s earnings and growth.

In this context, do renewable-energy projects make the cut as a smart capital investment? The short answer is: they never have in the past. For many years, utilities, retailers, manufacturers, and other companies with high energy demands avoided solar, wind, and biomass precisely because those technologies were too expensive, a money-losing proposition both in the short and the long term. When it comes to renewables, any return on investment is measured by money saved compared with what would have been spent on traditional forms of energy over a period of years. No savings, no return.

Over the past decade, however, costs for alternative energy have come down considerably. Now, solar, wind, and biomass can be cheaper than grid energy, when viewed over the long haul, especially when federal and state incentive payments are taken into account. Those savings and incentives can be calculated as an annual yield. Which means that companies can ask the question again: are renewables a good investment?

Happy returns? Few companies lose money embracing renewable energy, but they don’t make much either, according to an Environmental Leader survey of nearly 400 companies that have adopted solar, wind, and other renewable power sources.
Credit: Mark McKie

The answer is still no. After all, many companies have pretty high standards for what is considered “good.” In the world of corporate finance, it generally means a 20 to 25 percent annual return.

But they’re getting close in some cases. In a recent survey by research firm Environmental Leader, about a fifth of 400 companies that have adopted renewable energy said that they made an ROI of 15 percent or higher (see chart). That’s at least in the right ballpark. The other significant news out of the survey is how few companies actually lost money on such projects. At the very least, renewable energy is no longer a foolish use of corporate funds.

A case in point is UPS. Several years ago, the 350,000-employee shipping giant was evaluating whether renewables made financial sense, according to an Environmental Leader case study. “Neither solar nor wind had a return on investment that would excite anybody, but solar was more palatable,” says Scott Wicker, UPS’s vice president of sustainability and building engineering.

But there were other reasons for UPS to forge ahead; for example it wanted to reduce the risk of exposure to rising fossil-fuel prices. What tipped the scales was that photovoltaic panels were more efficient than they used to be, which helped bring the cost per watt way down. So the company installed solar panels to power a major facility in Palm Springs, California. Wicker says the company is pleased with its modest return on investment—but apparently not pleased enough to roll out the technology throughout the company.

The experience of UPS and others shows that renewable energy must cross not one but two thresholds to be widely embraced by corporations. The first has already been crossed—the technology is no longer a bad investment. Now, it’s mostly a middling one, much like a money market account to an individual investor. But the threshold that some companies are now approaching is potentially even more momentous: that in some cases renewables are on the cusp of “good.” If this second threshold gets crossed, the game changes.

 
What ROI 'value' can be applied to sustainable vs barbaric and short sighted?
 
liveforphysics said:
I have heard a claim if the oil subsidies and US military budget for a single year were applied towards building one massive solar facility in Nevada, the US could supply all of it's own energy needs as well as Canada and Mexico's.

Someone want to work a quick calc on that to see if it's in the ballpark?

You guys in the US, are doing well with solar thermal.

Approx 1300MW installed in California alone.
300MW in Arizona.
and 200MW in Nevada.

"The 377 MW Ivanpah Solar Power Facility is the largest solar power plant in the world, located in theMojave Desert of California. Other large solar thermal plants include the SEGS installation (354 MW), also in the Mojave"

Happy New Year said:
The federal government has dedicated nearly 2,000 times more acreage to oil and gas leases than to solar development. In 2010 the Bureau of Land Management approved nine large-scale solar projects, with a total generating capacity of 3,682 megawatts, representing approximately 40,000 acres. In contrast, in 2010, the Bureau of Land Management processed more than 5,200 applications gas and oil leases, and issued 1,308 leases, for a total of 3.2 million acres. Currently, 38.2 million acres of onshore public lands and an additional 36.9 million acres of offshore exploration in the Gulf of Mexico are under lease for oil and gas development, exploration and production.

Our contribution to solar thermal, down here, is piss poor, considering the whole of the interior of Oz is desert and we just fringe dwellers, though this state I reside in, didn't fall to the nutty far right, and has made a good dent in the state's usage, approx 30% of our needs are met by wind turbines.

The good people in research here have been working on a solar thermal generator, that uses heated air, instead of fluids, like water and the results are promising http://csirosolarblog.com/category/solar-thermal/solar-air-turbine/
Note: the prime minister shown in the blog is not the latest, the latest, one Tony Abbott is big coal's mate and just a total tool, sorry a tool is useful.
 
So, I'm watching one of those Extreme RV TV programs. The guy was building a RV out of a Semi. It had every bell and whistle you could cram into it, it even had a garage for a car. What was funny as hell was, the guy though he was "green", because he used reused materials in some places in the RV.

Seems there is no lack of monster RV's out on the road, even before the collapse in fuel prices. Will people lose their affection for economy vehicles as fast as they acquired it. I'm betting they will if the price of fuel remains low for a extended period of time.
 
How about this, for a 'green farce'.
There's quite a few fossil fuel plants, (primarily coal, because it's not convenient to ramp it down for off peak times) that pump hydro uphill for storage.
We have an approx 1GW reversing hydro setup, in the Snowy Mountains Hydro Scheme, so some fossil fuel plants can carry on full bore.
To feed transmission losses over the distance, the pumping losses and then the hydro generation losses and some transmission losses, to finally supply the consumer, we could say the trip cost approx 7+110 +10+5 = 132% , e.g. that 1GW renewable really cost 1.32GW, of which about 1.17GW had a carbon cost and they still claim carbon credit for the forward trip.
 
deronmoped said:
So, I'm watching one of those Extreme RV TV programs. The guy was building a RV out of a Semi. It had every bell and whistle you could cram into it, it even had a garage for a car. What was funny as hell was, the guy though he was "green", because he used reused materials in some places in the RV.

Seems there is no lack of monster RV's out on the road, even before the collapse in fuel prices. Will people lose their affection for economy vehicles as fast as they acquired it. I'm betting they will if the price of fuel remains low for a extended period of time.

auto sales up 6% in december and truck sales up 15%. hybrid sales down 13%.
 
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