400 mile range Tesla roadster 3.0

[speedmd]

Tesla announces a 400 mile range roadster! I want one!! http://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/20...be-able-to-travel-400-miles-on-single-charge/
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/12/26/3607003/tesla-announces-roadster-upgrade/
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/12/26/tesla-roadster-upgrade_n_6382746.html

 

[Hillhater]

So this "Roadster 3"... is an "upgrade pack" for existing cars ?
New battery, new bodywork aerodynamics, new tyres, etc,... It sounds like a major $$$$ revamp.
Or is Tesla about to re release a new version ?

 

[speedmd]

Articles claim some significant improved aero drag numbers as well as better rolling tires and reduced brake drag. Much larger capacity battery in the same volume. Looks to have clearly announced the end of the internal combustion engine era and no one noticed while in their christmas stupor. Not sure how long it will be before the masses sober up to the news! 2015 looks to be the year of the EV.

 

[Hillhater]

Well there is always the little matter of cost.!
It may be a viable option to a ice, but it is out of financial reach to 90% of car users. :?

 

[arkmundi]

Well there is always the little matter of cost.!
It may be a viable option to a ice, but it is out of financial reach to 90% of car users. :?

No, no, that's the point. If you account for total life-time cost of ownership, the ICer's simply can not compete. Keep in mind that the price of the Tesla includes a lifetime battery. Its why Elon Musk is building the giga-watt factory, to be true to his guarantee. And he's still offering very reasonable financing. So please, if you want a Tesla, by all means buy one. Not my style, but if its yours and sleek, ultramodern & sexy is your thing, please help yourself to a big serving of nice.

 

[Hillhater]

Lifetime battery ??
I thought it was an 8 year warranty !
Simple fact is , you could buy an ICE new for $20k to provide daily transport .
Tesla would be $80k minimum (and most likely more)
That $60k difference invested well would supply a lot of fuel & servicing etc.
..but most wouldn't have the extra $60k anyway !

 

[riba2233]

Tesla is a luxury, car, don't compare incomparable

 

[arkmundi]

I refuse to accept that, having several times gone through the math for total-lifetime-cost-of-ownership. Including some reasonable assumptions for the future price of gasoline. I challenge people in their false belief in the status-quo, to do the same. Part of that equation is the longevity of electric motors. Fewer moving parts, better construction, not subject to the extreme forces of miniature explosions, etc. A well made electric vehicle will out-last a human lifetime and require far less maintenance over its years. Its just the cost of batteries, and as you point out, the initial purchase price. But Tesla has anticipated that and made it easier to own. So no, not a luxury vehicle reserved for the wealthy. This is a vehicle for our time, in reach for anyone wanting to buy a new car and is doing the research.

 

[riba2233]

You can still buy much cheaper electric like nissan leaf.

 

[arkmundi]

You can still buy much cheaper electric like nissan leaf.

Nissan, Toyota & Honda are now technically inferior to the Tesla, so in catch-up mode. Superior tech: advantage Tesla; Safety: advantage Tesla; styling, aerodynamics & appeal: advantage Tesla; battery longevity: advantage Tesla; made-in-the-USA: advantage Tesla; PRICE: advantage Tesla when considering battery replacement costs. Cheaper is not better and a sacrifice of quality for price will always result in an inferior product.

 

[Punx0r]

Part of that equation is the longevity of electric motors. Fewer moving parts, better construction, not subject to the extreme forces of miniature explosions, etc. A well made electric vehicle will out-last a human lifetime and require far less maintenance over its years.

Even if the drive motors last forever, every other part of the car won't!

Nowadays it's unusual for an ICE car to suffer a serious fault in the first 10 years/100,000 miles, whereas the battery on an EV is very likely to fail by then.

 

[1BFC]

Before you challenge others to perform an analysis, perhaps it would be nice to see yours.

Care to provide this data you have?

I refuse to accept that, having several times gone through the math for total-lifetime-cost-of-ownership. Including some reasonable assumptions for the future price of gasoline. I challenge people in their false belief in the status-quo, to do the same. Part of that equation is the longevity of electric motors. Fewer moving parts, better construction, not subject to the extreme forces of miniature explosions, etc. A well made electric vehicle will out-last a human lifetime and require far less maintenance over its years. Its just the cost of batteries, and as you point out, the initial purchase price. But Tesla has anticipated that and made it easier to own. So no, not a luxury vehicle reserved for the wealthy. This is a vehicle for our time, in reach for anyone wanting to buy a new car and is doing the research.

 

[arkmundi]

Even if the drive motors last forever, every other part of the car won't!

Nowadays it's unusual for an ICE car to suffer a serious fault in the first 10 years/100,000 miles, whereas the battery on an EV is very likely to fail by then.

Yes, some distance is still needed to improve battery performance. Tesla is partnered with Panasonic and they're working on it. New improved battery due with the gigawatt factory. But the Tesla, apart from the battery is made to last a very long time. In these days of carbon fibre and advanced composite, cars can & are being build like commercial aeroplanes. Tesla exceeded every expectation, including that of the NTSB.

Before you challenge others to perform an analysis, perhaps it would be nice to see yours. Care to provide this data you have?

Maybe I will, but I'm not in the market. Anyone who is, hopefully, will not be persuaded by anything but their own analysis. Use your own data - pull out your receipts/bank statements and see what you're paying. Total cost of ownership includes everything from purchase to fuel to maintenance & repair, insurance, tax, etc. etc. Its not that hard to do. Then extrapolate forward. After 20 years and 200,000 miles, you'll need to buy something new. With Tesla, conservatively, that will be 50 years and 500,000 miles. But if you need help with grade school math, then consult your parents, friends. Or better yet, talk to a Tesla sales rep and ask them for their analysis of TCO.

 

[Punx0r]

Please substantiate your claim that Teslas have a design life of 50 years/500,000 miles...

I have seen authoritative lifetime cost comparisons for an "average" European car and driver. At the inexpensive, Leaf-style, end of the EV market parity with an ICE car was expected to be achieved sometime between 2015 and 2020. That was based on fuel prices before the recent decline and battery costs below $500/kWh. I can dig out the references if needs be. Anyways, the EV example used was much cheaper than a Tesla.

I really doubt anyone buys a Tesla to try to save money.

 

[fechter]

I'm not sure I'd want to drive a 50 year old car.
Things like wheel bearings and transmissions (even simple Tesla ones) will wear out and fail eventually.

 

[dnmun]

i drive a 42 year old pickup occasionally, 86k miles total on the speedo, but only when i have to use it to carry something large and heavy, and can get it started. no brakes, no power steering pump any more, exhaust manifold gaskets blown out, tranny takes a minute to pump up and engage, original spark plug wires almost non conductive, carburetor will not hold gas and accelerator pump seals all gone, fuel pump check valves leak so bad i have to push gas to the carb with air pressure on the tank filler opening. no Tesla will have these problems.

gonna go bid on a 2004 civic hybrid tomorrow. the last two have sold at $4,000 and $4400 at this auction with local prices here on CL around $5500. it is the 5 speed so i am gonna bid, hope i can buy it for less than $3700.

 

[speedmd]

Problem for most ice cars in the coming years is the accelerated depreciation most of them will see as no one will want to own/ operate a stink box and deal with the continued onslaught of added emissions hurdles most registering agencies continue to place on them. Some models are exceptional / collectible and will most likely be spared the crusher but will most likely be expensive to make mods to meet the stringent requirements headed our way in many parts of the world. IMO it is Not a good time to buy a expensive mass produced ice car unless you live in place that cares not of the newer emission standards.

 

[Hillhater]

Yes, some distance is still needed to improve battery performance. Tesla is partnered with Panasonic and they're working on it. New improved battery due with the gigawatt factory. But the Tesla, apart from the battery is made to last a very long time..

Tesla is no different in construction than any other modern car, and inferior to some.
All the normal wear and maintenance parts are still there..suspension bushes, brakes , wheel bearings, shocks, window lift motors , etc etc.
Already the Mod S has a reputation for drive line failure/replacements and that is with <50k vehicles on the road.
So i dont expect a maintenance free life any better than an ICE.
Its also very rare for a modern ICE to need a motor/tranny rebuild in any normal lifetime ( 20 yrs)
Who plans to own a car for 10+ years anyway ?
My family have owned many cars, ( 50+ and as many as 5 at a time !), and other than self imposed modifications, none have ever needed an engine or transmission rebuild.
( the last engine rebuild i did was on a beetle back in the mid '70's )
I cannot even recall the last time i had an exhaust system replaced on a car under 10 yrs old !
The biggest cost of ownership is not maintenance or fuel, it is..depreciation, tolls, parking, insurance, registration tax, etc.
Your situation may vary, but i spend twice as much on tolls , as i do on fuel !
Some owners of up market cars spend far more on car wash costs than on fuel !
So , ICE or EV, and ignoring environmental issues, you will never make a convincing financial argument to me based o current EV operating costs.

 

[liveforphysics]

As systems reduce the number of moving components, reliability will improve.

It doesn't mean somebody couldn't build an unreliable direct-drive hubmotor vehicle, as we well know on ES :lol:

It means should the same level of incompetence in "design" been applied towards a solution which featured additional moving pieces, reliability would statistically decrease further.

Tesla isn't direct drive yet, they have a single gearing stage. This single gearing stage has been the source of the drive-train failures, due to some vehicles not being shimmed correctly from Tesla's motor mfg or something.

Gas vehicles involve a Rube-Goldberg-esque series of little levers and springs and bouncing valves and contraptions crammed with tons of high speed moving gears dragging through oil and cog sets changing the direction of the torque that has to be milked out through the aid of a torque-converter or clutch assembly, because it's own parasitic losses overcome it's output when RPM's get too low.

Likewise, EV's like Tesla's and others are so easy to drive only using the throttle and regen rather than putting any wear on the braking system.

 

[Punx0r]

I completely agree that an electric drivetrain has the potential to be more reliable due to greater simplicity and lower part count (Tesla just need a little more time to get there ). However, the rest of something like a Model S seems very complex - everything controlled by integrated systems. It's the first car I've heard of that automatically updates its software (something I refuse to let my computers do).

Will Teslas be maintainable if Tesla discontinue parts and service support for a model? I fear a lot of the technology is beyond the skills of the DIYer or cottage industry to repair. Could the model S also be the first car to be like MS Windows, in that once software support is discontinued you could be left with a liability prone to bugs or security flaws?

I agree that tax pressure is more likely to cause a shift to EV than anything else. Society can be quite pragmatic at times. I also agree that with more EVs government will shift taxes away from fuel and onto parking/tolls in order to avoid loosing revenue, which will reduce the economic benefit of an EV versus ICE.

 

[arkmundi]

Will Teslas be maintainable if Tesla discontinue parts and service support for a model? I fear a lot of the technology is beyond the skills of the DIYer or cottage industry to repair. Could the model S also be the first car to be like MS Windows, in that once software support is discontinued you could be left with a liability prone to bugs or security flaws?.

That actually is one of my arguments with myself going car-free. Because its true of most vehicles, that at some point in time, it can no longer be serviced.

We have no statistics on the longevity of the Tesla, as a class of vehicle, because its a new class. So any and all claims, including my own, can not be substantiated. Meaning, my prediction of 50 years and 500,000 miles is as good as a prediction of 20 years and 200,000 miles, or any where in-between. For all we know, its 5 years and 10,000 miles because of some egregious malfunction and Tesla no longer exists as a company for warranty claims.

But there is a level of sanity to be had in car-free with a DIY eBike. I do all my own servicing with simple tools. That and the public transportation system, which where I'm at is great. But if I were to buy a car in today's market, it'd be a Tesla for sure.

 

[Punx0r]

The level of systems complexity on a model S is comparable only to a small number of high-end ICE cars IMO and the sales volume similarly low. Both factors make on-going third-party support less viable IMO. I think the average car will end up in the same position, but the Model S is ahead of the curve.

I also don't see how the Model S is a new class of vehicle? It looks like a great package, but it's got four wheels, doors, a roof, lots of electronic gizmos and constructed using standard automotive processes. It may be well finishes with good quality control and a joined-up approach to its systems, but it's pressed panels welded/bolted/bonded to a monocoque chassis.

Regarding substantiation of expected service life - the answer to this one is easy: Tesla will have a design life for every component in the car. Validation testing of some parts may have shown a predicted life in excess of this, but mostly they'll be aiming to achieve target life for minimum part quality (cost). IIRC the standard in the ICE automotive world is 12 years "average" use.

 

[MitchJi]

I completely agree that an electric drivetrain has the potential to be more reliable due to greater simplicity and lower part count (Tesla just need a little more time to get there ). However, the rest of something like a Model S seems very complex - everything controlled by integrated systems.

Hi,

There is no correlation between "control by integrated systems" and complexity or reliability. The Integrated circuit controlling the temperature in our home isn't complex or unreliable, unless you think replacing one 9 volt battery in 20 years is unreliable.

 

[MitchJi]

Hi,

The main thing the 400 mile range signifies IMO is that in or five years, assuming the same rate of battery cell improvement, the Model S will have a 400 mile range, and the Model III should have a 300 mile range.

I'm not sure exactly what the tipping point range will be, but I believe it's under 300 miles.

 

[Punx0r]

I mean the various systems throughout the car being integrated rather than discrete, not a reference to the use of microchips.

You end up with stupid failure modes, like the car becoming completely inoperable due to a fault with the radio. It sounds daft, but I'm currently working on a 12 year old Peugeot car where a problem with the radio has the unintentional effect of preventing the engine from starting and creating a diagnostic mystery.