chinas mfg power
- Thread starter kriskros
- Start date
what?.. no more tvs, ipads ,computrs ect,ect...WOW 
Sunder
10 MW
Ever heard of the saying "Cut your nose off to spite your face"?
Yes, it'd hurt the US (and the rest of the world) but it'd hurt China a lot more.
Yes, it'd hurt the US (and the rest of the world) but it'd hurt China a lot more.
JEB
100 W
I read a article that the chinese cannot afford to buy the products they are constructing, if they could afford to plug them in, the excess inventory would buld up fast, then they could be uninployed, and I don't think they have a 99 month cushion.
the chinese federal RESERVES are in the trillions, while the U.S. DEBT is in the trillions.. chiana could hold out long enough to "punish" the west...or any other area they want.. even 2 or 3 months could hurt...thet have said on different occasions that the U.S. lives too lavishly... they could then dump the production buildup very profitably on a needy market... a gain,not a loss ....think of the "face" they would gain, at least their own estimation [and thats all that counts to them] 
Sunder
10 MW
Who would they really be hurting in the long run though?
Say, 2 or 3 months, we can't get iPads, iPhones, or many other items. Is business in the US going to grind to a halt? Nope. Is business in China going to grind to a halt? You betcha.
However, factories will start sprouting up in the US again - products will be more expensive, definitely. Within a few more months, there will be locally made products. Don't forget that Intel's plants, and several memory makers are in USA - there's no reason they couldn't put up new plants very fast.
Worse will be the corporate-political fall out. If you could buy a widget from a local made factory for $100, and could pretty well guarantee delivery short of Force Majeure, would you buy that, or a Chinese made widget for $80, but supply could be stopped at any time? Right now, businesses see Chinese supply lines as stable. The Chinese government pulls a stunt like that, and it creates a sovereign risk - something it's been trying to avoid for decades now.
Your problem is that you're looking at US vs China as singular entities. The Chinese factories aren't holding US treasury bonds, the Chinese government is. Unless the government wants to just give out free money to all former employees and factory owners, then there's still going to be civil unrest.
But if we're talking about sovereign risk - who's to say that the US simply won't say "Had enough of these austerity measures. Had enough of debt ceilings. We're refusing to honour any outstanding treasury bonds." Why not? It's just as silly an idea as China putting an export embargo on itself.
Say, 2 or 3 months, we can't get iPads, iPhones, or many other items. Is business in the US going to grind to a halt? Nope. Is business in China going to grind to a halt? You betcha.
However, factories will start sprouting up in the US again - products will be more expensive, definitely. Within a few more months, there will be locally made products. Don't forget that Intel's plants, and several memory makers are in USA - there's no reason they couldn't put up new plants very fast.
Worse will be the corporate-political fall out. If you could buy a widget from a local made factory for $100, and could pretty well guarantee delivery short of Force Majeure, would you buy that, or a Chinese made widget for $80, but supply could be stopped at any time? Right now, businesses see Chinese supply lines as stable. The Chinese government pulls a stunt like that, and it creates a sovereign risk - something it's been trying to avoid for decades now.
Your problem is that you're looking at US vs China as singular entities. The Chinese factories aren't holding US treasury bonds, the Chinese government is. Unless the government wants to just give out free money to all former employees and factory owners, then there's still going to be civil unrest.
But if we're talking about sovereign risk - who's to say that the US simply won't say "Had enough of these austerity measures. Had enough of debt ceilings. We're refusing to honour any outstanding treasury bonds." Why not? It's just as silly an idea as China putting an export embargo on itself.
Lessss
1 MW
sales to Australia Canada etc.. would increase and those countries would reship to the US providing an economic bump to those countries. Hey i'm all for it.
business would not grind to a halt in 2 or 3 months of course... BUT..the screams from the public would not be music in the politicians ears.. which of course would be the main idea... a couple of months would not be long enough to kick start any serious US mfg.. china would not want lose the US market.. just make show of chinese power... having a number of chinese friends and having dealt with chinese business people over the years ,i have some inkling of their thought processes... not vicious,just assertive... it could happen.....N.B. the white house is going ask approval for another 1.3 trillion in loans this week
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