End of the world? I think not, but change is a coming...

[John in CR]

Since the topic is change, my big question is when does the real axe fall in this period to ensure significant change? That is the bursting of the derivatives bubble. The housing bubble had to pop, but at least it involved real assets. Derivatives on the other hand are just paper assets invented from thin air, and apparently the numbers are staggering. That piper has to be paid for the world to make a fresh start in this period of change, and tax payers around the world are going to revolt before they pay this one. Anyone here got the skinny on derivatives?

Then there's China, and I don't think any discussion of world change is valid without analysis of how China is involved. Going local is great, but I still want to be able to get motors and batteries. Is anyone else really stepping up to the plate in that regard?

John

 

[deronmoped]

Talking about peak things.

Rare Earth metals are going to run out very quickly, some in like ten years.

Deron.

 

[pwbset]

If consumers made a concerted and genuine effort to conserve... we likely wouldn't be witnessing 400 HP, fat-tired 4x4's being driven two blocks to 7-11's for a 6-pack and pack of smokes.

Hella good point actually.. BP is simply catering to the demands of the masses.. &$^% consumers! :wink:

 

[tailwind]

Big Moose,

Type , #spillcam UTM , in the twitter search box to get the reference.

Thanks for the pdf.
Page 37 makes for chilling reading. That BOP is a piece of shit and should never have been put into service.

TD of the well is 18360', The base of the drill pipe is at 8367'. So no where near the bottom of the well. They cant tell how far the rams have closed and if they are holding the drill pipe in place.
If they are not then the drill pipe would have fallen to the bottom of the hole when they cut the riser off below where it was bent over.
If they are holding the pipe then it would be a bad idea to try and free it.


Greg

 

[SilverSurfer]

Big change will be in the energy tech format. Oil is a dinosaur, pun intended, but electricity as we know and use it is a dinosaur too! The reason copper is an issue is due to its efficiency is moving electrons. Which is the the back half of the dinosaur. I believe that the need for a next level technology will spur a whole new science! I believe that photons will be the future of energy science. It can be moved and manipulated much easier and more efficiently than water or electricity. A fiber is much better than a pipe or a wire. With lasers we can move vast quantities over vast distances with great efficiency! Photons are easy as pie to make, and are in abundance available to all almost 12 hours a day! We have learned to harness the elusive power of the atom, though not of much practicle use for individuals, in the way of reactors and weapons, very handy. I believe that photons have a secret ability to share, one that we have yet to unravel, and when we learn how to harness its secret, our energy needs will be covered nicely for a long time! The PHOTON is keeping a secret that we need to discover! Nothing else quite like a photon. Just my wacked out opinion. SS

 

[wineboyrider]

Gold is a finite metal too and some of it is consumed in electronic applications, but the economic situation i.e the price of oil has more to do with the fiat dollar we have now than the price of oil. In other words the inflated dollar makes oil look more expensive than it normally would be had we stood by the Gold standard. If the dollar were more stable then we would have a better comparison as to the real cost of oil?

 

[John in CR]

SS,

I don't know anything about photons, but I do know we can only count on current tech, which is already sufficient to accomplish real change. It's only a matter of building enough of it, and the huge investment necessary for significant change will be the driving force that brings the economy back to prosperity. Oil prices where they are now and look to go soon will stifle the economy until change occurs. India and China's economies are largely unaffected by the high price of oil, because they are so early in their economic growth curve, and they are using smaller more energy efficient vehicles right off the bat.

John

 

[hydro-one]

Yeah its good to have some hope, SS . I am very interested to see the day when superconductors can work at room temperature. Magnets will improve, battery development is rapid. Cheap photovoltic is here already (first solar) (if big oil would release thier strangleholds). Photo-catalytic hydrogen production, along with fuel cells and superconducting motors would be a good heavy transport alternative energy, as would bio-hydrogen.

These are all projects I would like to do myself

 

[Chillboy]

You guys heard of Blacklight Power?
www.blacklightpower.com
I posted the only thread on this board in "spam" but I'm hoping this is much more than that

 

[chvidgov.bc.ca]

So what is the probability that the blowout can't be stopped AT ALL? Is there a chance of this?

 

[amberwolf]

There is a chance of *anything* happening. I don't think there is any event for which the probability is completely zero.

That said, there will be a way to stop it. It just might not be in time to prevent something unfixable elsewhere from happening.

 

[Kiwi]

Things get messy because 5+ billion people on this planet have had their lives made possible by the discovery of fossil fuels, and namely oil.

This abundant store of sunlight has allowed us to accelerate our lives, to grow, harvest, and move enormous amounts of food never putting any restrictions to the population growth. To build shelters (homes) and supply them with heat and water so we survive.

The anticipated decline in oil, our life blood, is much faster than a natural decline in population. Therefore, if all the life supporting benefits we get from oil (food, water, shelter, sanitation, a functioning infrastructure)are not replaced in the next ........30-50 years, then anyone not planning on dieing from old age may have to look at the other options of departure. In 50 years there is likely to be available the same amount of oil when the population was 3 billion in the 50's, but this time they are forecasting.......9 billion???? Sounds like economist talk.


I know a few of you watch the markets, I do, and like any natural system, the planets, stocks, temperature, seasons, populations..they all cycle.

Tell me, if you were invested in this stock below, what would you be planning to do now? Anyone want to sell up, come back in a couple of hundred years when its selling at a discount?

Yep, I smell change in the air.

 

[deardancer3]

Lots of people will resist the change. MANY people want to return to 2004. That was "The good old days".

So the battle for the media is about to heat up even more,

One side catering to the Growth and expansion politics of old- the side that calls the voice of reality "Doom and Gloomers", the side that keeps adding juice to the punch bowl and says "Party On" , that Optimism always wins, Technology solves all problems. Have Crisis number 232B be big enough so the masses forget about Crisis 231A. "which is more important folks-Peak oil, Peak debt, or peak whatever- its all made up stories to keep you scared" is the PR strategy --Just keep spending and consuming its all going to be OK.

Versus

A view that an ever increasing world population with an ever increasing hunger for improved lifestyle for all, wasteful and carefree about inefficiencies, consuming a finite amount of resources and materials (oil, copper, land, water) will soon come to a point where spot shortages become significant then regional and larger then larger. A view that understands Math, Psychology, Economics and Maslow's hierarchy of needs and that We can deal with this the hard way, or, we can deal
with this the REAL HARD way.

Crank up the Public relations and mis-information machines. Delay and Stretch out the coming bad times and the news about it. Sure, add another 2Billion people to the planet, we will find energy, food, housing, sanitation and water so they can have the lifestyle of 1990's Americans without starting a world war. Two billion more customers for ADM, Sony, Conoco, Toyota, GE. Its all good and it means good jobs and prosperity for everyone.

I wish we would get real -- and this is an opportunity; Especially with the Recent Great Recession, the Oil price of $147/Brl, Greece, and now the Gulf of Mexico Oil disaster. But , I think its still not bad enough. Things are going to change, but, I think its going to take 2 or 3 more really big disasters before folks realize we need to be more mature as a people.

Right now we are still in "Blame someone other than me, Fix that little inconvenience, and Get back to 2004 lifestyle".

D

 

[John in CR]

Deardancer,

I agree to a large extent, but only as it applies to the sheep. I believe that we've reached the point where the sheepherders, who have been acting like sheep, are waking up to the fact that those left in charge of the flock have screwed things up enough that something has to be done. They see through the news meant for the sheep or don't even watch. They discount everything those left in charge of the flock have to say, and this time they're not going back to dormant status until they see real change in the direction they want.

 

[hydro-one]

Very interesting!! John you just described me!! I think your right, I hope we can show these sheep a better way....Its here already--------, up here we have free/cheap/clean hydro power. over four terawatts of clean power here. thats pretty much constant. Yet nobodys even heard of an electric vehicle up here!!! nothing. So I am riding lots to show people how much fun its is!!!!!!!
So Im a bit pessimistic of the oil companies complete control over the sheep. Its possible people will die b4 they give up on "2004" lifestyles. My own dad said he'd rather die than give up his lifestyle and footprint(substantial).

I hate to say it but the worst case scenario of this oil leak , is total destruction of the ecosystem. Tell me its going to be fixed soon. please.

 

[veloman]

Nearly everyone simply thinks we need a different energy source. They don't think for a second that perhaps they are just using way too much energy.

They believe they need to move a 3,000lb vehicle to transport themselves everywhere.


In a way, they do, because it's an arms race - driving the bigger and 'safer' vehicles.


As it stands right now, our roads are simply unsafe for truly efficient vehicles. There is nothing unsafe about a streamlined velomobile that takes 2kw max to travel at highway speeds. It's the fact that you have idiots driving 3,000+lb vehicles next to you that is unsafe about it.

Yes there are large vehicles on the road that can't be replaced by small efficient vehicles, but how often do tractor trailers, utility vehicles, dump trucks, etc cause accidents?


These single occupant monster vehicles I see hunkering down the road look ridiculous. Wow, you just needed 150hp to move yourself a mile, only to have to wait 2 minutes in traffic back up ahead. My 20lb machine underneath me just smoked your ass 0-30mph too. :lol: :lol:

 

[hydro-one]

HAHA your so right!! Lets change it though from "smoked your ass" to "zapped your ass" or something along those lines, smoke is so "politically incorrect".

edit: toasted his ass at the lights!!

 

[etard]

I don"t watch TV, so I'm kinda out of the loop here. Forgive my ignorance, but you would think ALL Big Oil would be rushing to the scene of this crime trying to cover up the spewing poison. Instead, they are probably distancing themselves cuz that's what the lawyers suggested.

This conversation has spurned me to start thinking about a lifestyle without oil, and while the scenerio scares me a little, it also brings great hope. Maybe all these modern "conveniences" only serve to disconnect us into small groupings that don"t require us to work together like the "barn raising" gathering of yesteryear (still conducted by Mennonites that have shunned modern tech). I used to laugh at these funny looking folk still driving to town in their horse and buggies in rural Virginia, but now I see if the shit hits the fan, who is more equipped to survive the breakdown of our support system?

On talk of resources, I find it hard to believe electric vehicles are the wave of the future. Our metals are finite and ever more deeper and shrinking, how can we sustain an electric motor based economy as long as they are built with such rare materials, and then there is the limited quantity of Lithium.

Wow, this conversation is depressing me now, how about them Lakers?? :wink:

 

[veloman]

I've been recently thinking of moving and joining some sort of community such the Amish or Mennonites... is that religion based? If not, then maybe....


Every day, this culture makes me sick. Such selfishness, disrespect for all life and values, waste, completely unsustainable. If you aren't living sustainably, then you might as well be dead. Life to me is - every continuing, in the sense that your way of life must be able to be continued. This culture is living in a dream world and most are clueless.

 

[John in CR]

There's enough copper and lithium, and both are recyclable. You probably have enough copper in your house and car already. The largest lithium deposits aren't even in production, only the easiest to harvest lithium is. Those stories are just selling a different fear, so don't fall for it. There's also lots of fossil fuels to enable the shift, since it's not like it will just dry up suddenly, and simple conservation will buy decades. Natural gas is another good bridge solution.

You guys can be Amish if you want, but I embrace the coming changes and am very excited. Make electricity cheap enough and/or making hydrogen more efficient, and I'll happily run on hydrogen, but I prefer the silence and durability of electrics so I'm sticking with that route until there's something better. My 80-90% reduction in car usage has been a gain not a sacrifice thanks to my electric bikes, so my family of 5 is doing our part and will do more, but not through sacrifice unless it becomes necessary. Until I figure out a good way to share this with others as a business, I'll have to settle for leading by example, spreading the word, and doing what I can to help come up with better ways. I've got no time or patience for doomsayers, fear mongers, and finger pointers, so sell it to someone else. Better yet, think of something productive, and do that instead. You'll be happier for it.

John

 

[bigmoose]

I've been recently thinking of moving and joining some sort of community such the Amish or Mennonites... is that religion based? If not, then maybe....

Every day, this culture makes me sick. Such selfishness, disrespect for all life and values, waste, completely unsustainable.

Veloman, I live within 40 miles of a significant Amish community. I visit it often. All our furniture is from true Amish workshops. I built my cabinets from scratch and did all the finish carpentry in my home, now 25 years later, my work shows wear and the Amish furniture is perfect!

Yes it is a religious community, and they do not use electricity. Electric and telephone wires cannot enter their homes or businesses that they own. They could work for me in my automated/computerized lumber mill/furniture factory(if I had one); but they cannot own such a business. I was blessed to spend a day with the true Amish, in their homes and work about 15 years ago due to a good friend who provided their transportation. It is a day I will never forget. I was accepted, and felt like I was lifelong friends with those I met. I even looked like the married men, if I would ditch my belt and trade my signature plaid shirt for blue. The community I visited had their own utility, compressed air! Large central diesels ran the compressors, and the air was pumped to the various shops/businesses and cluster homes. Everything was devised to run on air. Air sump pumps and the most novel air ceiling fan I had ever seen. I asked them if they had an air copy machine! They laughed with a good sense of humor.

I like the peacefulness of their community. In all honesty, there are some problems with their youth developing. Things are not so simple anymore. The Mennonites are nonviolent, and will give you the shirt off their back before they would strike you. A very good friend of mine married a Mennonite lady. She is the most peaceful and helpful person I know! I think there are some lessons to be learned from them. I have never seen men work so hard, as the Amish I spent that day with. It is not a life of leisure. I love to visit, and contemplate their ways; but in all honesty, I couldn't slow down that much for the rest of my life...

 

[John in CR]

Bigmoose,

Any news on the well? I check the video once a day and the leak is quite obviously increasing, which is only to be expected with the flow enlarging the pathway up by erosion (if that's the correct term). I haven't seen oil capture volumes for nearly a week, but I assume the vents must be back all the way open. I'm getting the distinct impression that the relief well isn't going to work, and even if it could work today, by the time they do tap into this hole from the bottom, the hole will be too big. The relief wells are starting to seem to me to be the equivalent of 2 crews driving down both levees of the Mississippi River, with the intention when each gets on location to start building a dam across using just hand shovels.

What is the contingency plan for worse case? The double barreled cap in the works with some additional taps into the BOP looks to not have anywhere close to 100% leak capture. Can some funnel topped thing like Chernobyl's sarcophagus be remotely possible?

What about tapping directly into the reservior some distance from the well, and injecting thick stuff to slow and/or block the flow from the reservoir to the well, making the bottom kill possible...like a junk shot but starting from outside the flowing well. What I like about this approach is it doesn't require the same accuracy as tapping into the well, so they can start the process in a more limited and guaranteed time frame.

Here's one for the chemists, how about a liquid or powder that could be injected that mixes with oil to form a solid or at least greatly increase its viscosity? When making gumbo roux, hot oil and flour gets very thick once it gets hot enough. This one gets called the Gumbo Shot. LOL

Is there a military item that creates just extreme heat with no explosion? The intent would be to fuse the hole closed from the bottom. How about the opposite, something to cool it and maybe create plug it with crystals like the big top cap did?

Something has to be possible with existing technology, because I just can't accept the idea of an unstoppable gusher, even after it blows the straw out leaving a meter hole of whatever it ends up.

 

[evblazer]

Something has to be possible with existing technology, because I just can't accept the idea of an unstoppable gusher, even after it blows the straw out leaving a meter hole of whatever it ends up.

I think it has been mentioned before but someone somewhere is still thinking $$$. That the well if somehow recovered will still make more $$$ then the damages needed to be paid. I think it is impossible for BP to stop it at least until they decide they want to stop it.

Consumers will be much the same. Use as much as they can't till there isn't anymore rather then cut back a little and make it last.

 

[Papa]

FWIW... http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-06-15/bp-well-leaking-up-to-60-000-barrels-a-day-u-s-says-update2-.html

June 15, 2010, 7:06 PM EDT

"The new estimated range, from 35,000 to 60,000 barrels a day, is more accurate because scientists collected more data from a single leak instead of the multiple leaks that existed before a damaged riser pipe was removed June 3, Energy Secretary Stephen Chu and Interior Secretary Ken Salazar said today in statement posted on the spill response website."

... I check the video once a day and the leak is quite obviously increasing,

Self inflicted misery that spoils the rest of the day. That's why I quit watchin' it. And considering the repetitious, heart wrenchin' images of oil covered wildlife being displayed on TV, I'm told,... I'm thankful I don't own one.

 

[John in CR]

Something has to be possible with existing technology, because I just can't accept the idea of an unstoppable gusher, even after it blows the straw out leaving a meter hole of whatever it ends up.

I think it has been mentioned before but someone somewhere is still thinking $$$. That the well if somehow recovered will still make more $$$ then the damages needed to be paid. I think it is impossible for BP to stop it at least until they decide they want to stop it.

Consumers will be much the same. Use as much as they can't till there isn't anymore rather then cut back a little and make it last.

EVBlazer,

I have no problem with them capturing the oil and selling it to help pay for the fiasco, but there is apparently a real possibility that the relief wells won't be able to stop it. That route is essentially a top kill fed from another under control hole that has a column of heavy mud. They will load that column heavier to push and fill the leaking hole from the bottom up to get its fluid column heavy enough to overcome the high pressure down there. Once the pressures are under control and the flow stopped, they plug it with concrete. The problem is that it's quite likely to be flowing so fast that the injected mud can never reach enough weight in that leaking column, like trying to dam up the Mississippi with shovels full of dirt and the mud just gets swept away too fast just like the top kill did.

Not only is the nightmare of not being able to stop the lead quite possible, it may even be probable. What's the contingency plan then? The pipe in place, through and around which the oil, gas, and sand is flowing will be short lived, and will be eaten away little by little as is are the rock sides of that hole. In addition there are already cracks from the hole deep below the surface, that run all the way up to the sea floor, so once what's in place goes, which is inevitable unless the well is plugged, it could blast a gaping hole and oil flowing much faster into the Gulf, which could go on for many months if not years before petering out.

People only think it's bad now. Even Obama is using words to prepare the world that the worst is yet to come. This must immediately become a cost no object effort, not only to clean up what's been spilled, and capture what is possible to capture, but to get the thing plugged. I simply don't accept that the only possibility is a maybe 50/50 shot with relief wells.