I also think a driver of EV sales will start to become convenience and ease of use both things somewhat separated from gas prices. In the US I think first we'll see more and more two car households switch to one EV along with suburban households. The range anxiety however unrealistic it often is can be overlooked by very easily if you have two cars. If you have a garage and don't live very far away from most things (suburban) the convenience of never having to go to a gas station, no oil changes and similar maintenance, along with a comfortable and easy driving experience will win more and more over.
I think two things are so often overlooked when people talk about EVs that lead to flawed arguments. The first is that EVs are too expensive and they are too boring. I've seen so many people claim that buying a new EV will never pay for itself vs driving the gas car you have and that these new EVs are too expensive, who would pay over 30K for a car. It seems these arguments are always made from people who have never bought a new car and in this discussion the only people that matter really are people who buy new cars, every used car was once new. And while sure I would never spend the kind of money on a car that most new cars cost the popularity of trucks and massive SUVs with crazy price tags seems to indicate that new buyers may not be that price sensitive and getting them to pay an extra 5-10k for an EV equivalent of an ICE if that is what they want is probably not that hard and it's probably more a matter of them wanting it. And that is probably down to things like the garbage EV offerings from many brands, FUD about range, cold weather, battery life, etc and just never having tried one before. Almost forgot, that is to say two car households and suburban households are also probably much more likely to constitute a larger percentage of new car buyers due to wealth brackets.
Which leads me to the EVs are boring, an argument made by car people who seem to often overlook that most people couldn't give a shit about car stuff and just want their car to be an appliance, one that does it's job well without ever having to think about it. They want a vehicle that is quiet, comfortable, low maintenance and if they charge it at home and never go to a gas station, that's all the more convenient and convenience sells.
Nah I don't think so, we'll burn/use it (probably use it longer than we burn it) for as long as it's economically viable to do so. It's not like oil is free to get, move, process, etc and if it's too expensive compared to alternatives we'll stop pumping it just like it became not economical viable to keep using whale oil before we killed all the whales. And I think to produce electricity will be one of the first places it will become no longer viable (I mean it isn't now), I expect the last will probably be as a chemical precursor with shipping and aircraft being somewhere in the middle. Although I could be wrong a few uses could take so long to find a economical alternative we'll pump most of the oil.
