38% of cars sold in China are now electric, Sinopec says the ICE is doomed

[classicalgas]

Here's a more realistic examination of toyota's bias...https://www.motorbiscuit.com/toyota-hybrid-bet-gas-lithium/

A few high points....

"If both the price of gasoline and the lithium that makes EV batteries were to stay the same, Toyota’s predictions for lithium-ion based EVs would probably be correct. That is to say, only 30% of new car buyers would willing or able to drive EVs."


"But its a pretty safe bet that the cost of lithium will eventually go down and the cost of gasoline will eventually go up. There may be temporary drops in gas prices as we open new wells. And their may be temporary jumps in lithium prices as demand for EV batteries increases. But in the long run, the amount of gasoline on earth is finite. There is a ton of lithium spread throughout the earth’s crust, so as we get more efficient at mining it the price will decrease".

"But what about that 90 hybrids part of the 1:6:90 rule? Toyota has been a pioneer of hybrids for years. And that’s fantastic. In its most recent generation of vehicles, Toyota added hybrid technology to many of its full-frame trucks and SUVs. But here’s the rub: When Toyota says that building 90 hybrids does more for the environment than one EV, it is suggesting that commuting in a hybrid Tundra is environmentally friendly. And it’s not."


"This year’s fleet of brand new passenger vehicles pollutes more on average than it did ten years ago. Engines are more efficient and many of them are hybrids. But vehicles now are just that much bigger and heavier. This trend is a major obstacle in reducing emissions"

The big error here is that lithium will continue to be a significant ingredient in emerging EV battery tech, and that energy density won't see significant improvement in the near term. Both those assumptions are out of date.

 

[classicalgas]

I'm very sure you don't understand how a hybrid vehicle works. Not even a little bit.

"A hybrid car is the same in principle as carrying and running a gasoline generator to power your e-bike"

Actually, that's almost exactly how a BMW I3 with the range extender" turned on works

How The BMW i3 Range Extender Works - Green Car Future

 

[Comrade]

Actually, that's almost exactly how a BMW I3 with the range extender" turned on works

And what does an BMW I3, an electric car, has to do with hybrids?

 

[Chalo]

I'm very sure you don't understand how a hybrid vehicle works. Not even a little bit.

I'm sure you don't understand what I said. Because it's true.

 

[jonescg]

Those 90 hybrids will also burn 400-odd litres of gasoline per year for 20 years. But Toyota didn't mention that in their infographic...

 

[Hillhater]

Most small or owner-operated taxi and rideshare businesses are going BEV. Besides, if conventional hybrids are so good, why has it taken until now, some 20 years later, for their sales to suddenly explode?
The large rental fleet business model relies on flipping their vehicles for a decent price while they can. The EVs were great until it was time for new assets; if not for those pesky *checks notes* affordable new EVs, the resale values would be much better.
Honestly low resale value is a problem that will solve itself before long.

Commercial taxi fleets are the one who monitor operating costs, not the small/Uber drivers.
Those Commercial taxi operators ran LPG fleets to reduce costs, until Hybrids (Camry mostly) showed how economical and reliable they are .
Hybrid sales have increased recently as the public have become aware of their fuel economy and now have more choice than just Toyota, Many also see it as a way of avoiding the cost, “Range anxiety”, and recharge time, of an EV.

The Rental companies, (Hertz, Sixt, etc) sighted higher EV maintenance and repair costs initially, with poor resale value being the final straw.

Hertz has announced it will sell approximately 20,000 electric vehicles (EVs) from its US rental car fleet, buying more combustion-powered vehicles instead.
The company began offloading its EVs in December 2023 and is planning to continue selling its vehicles in an “orderly fashion” throughout 2024.

“Expenses related to collision and damage, primarily associated with EVs, remained high in the quarter, thereby supporting the Company’s decision to initiate the material reduction in the EV fleet.
Hertz Global CEO Stephen Scherr said during the company’s third-quarter earnings call in 2023 that “our in-fleeting of EVs will be slower than our prior expectations”.

“Collision and damage repairs on an EV can often run about twice that associated with a comparable combustion engine vehicle,” said Mr Scherr on the call.

Mr Scherr added another reason why Hertz is slowing down its electrification rollout is due to recent price cuts.

 

[Hillhater]

Those 90 hybrids will also burn 400-odd litres of gasoline per year for 20 years. But Toyota didn't mention that in their infographic...

Well, actually they did in terms of total carbon reduction being 37 greater than running 1 EV.….
……or are you concerned about running out of oil ?

 

[jonescg]

Well, actually they did in terms of total carbon reduction being 37 greater than running 1 EV.….
……or are you concerned about running out of oil ?

No, I'm concerned about the products of combustion of that fuel.

 

[Hillhater]

But here’s the rub: When Toyota says that building 90 hybrids does more for the environment than one EV, it is suggesting that commuting in a hybrid Tundra is environmentally friendly. And it’s not."

No, …for one they specifically refered to cars….not trucks.
but if you want to compare a Hybrid Tundra, maybe you should consider an “apples to apples” approach and think ,…”is a hybrid Tundra better for the environment than a non hybrid version “ ?
..or 90 hybrid Tundra’s compared to 1 BEV Rivian ?

 

[jonescg]

Hybrids will have their moment in the sun, but short of deliberate interference from recalcitrant automakers, BEVs will get back to winning the sales charts in a year or two.

 

[Comrade]

I'm sure you don't understand what I said. Because it's true.

Do explain please how it is true then.

 

[Chalo]

Do explain please how it is true then.

Using a reciprocating engine to power an electric vehicle is what makes it a hybrid. An e-bike with an onboard generator would be a series hybrid. Like any kind of hybrid car, though, it is inherently more complex, more expensive, and more maintenance-intensive than a bike powered by either an electric motor alone or the same gas engine alone. It's less energy efficient by far than a purely battery-electric version, unless the battery is charged by way of a small reciprocating engine (and maybe even if so).

There's not only a cost attached to making and maintaining the redundant equipment, but there's a cost attached to hauling it around.

 

[Comrade]

Using a reciprocating engine to power an electric vehicle is what makes it a hybrid. An e-bike with an onboard generator would be a series hybrid. Like any kind of hybrid car, though, it is inherently more complex, more expensive, and more maintenance-intensive than a bike powered by either an electric motor alone or the same gas engine alone. It's less energy efficient by far than a purely battery-electric version, unless the battery is charged by way of a small reciprocating engine (and maybe even if so).

There's not only a cost attached to making and maintaining the redundant equipment, but there's a cost attached to hauling it around.

Everything you just said, including the earlier "running a gasoline generator to power your e-bike", leads me to believe that you think a hybrid vehicle (like a Prius) is basically an electric vehicle with an electric generator on board.

Using a reciprocating engine to power an electric vehicle is what makes it a hybrid.

I don't see how else to read this. That is a profound misunderstanding of how hybrid vehicles work.

 

[Chalo]

Everything you just said, including the earlier "running a gasoline generator to power your e-bike", leads me to believe that you think a hybrid vehicle (like a Prius) is basically an electric vehicle with an electric generator on board.



I don't see how else to read this. That is a profound misunderstanding of how hybrid vehicles work.

I understand the difference between series and parallel hybrids. I also understand that they both use two power systems to do the job of one. That's the opposite of good design.

 

[neptronix]

Almost doubling the efficiency of a gas motor with a 1kwhr battery and small electric motor is a genius design.
More effective at reducing gasoline car's emissions and improving it's efficiency than the last 5-6 decades of improvements to the ICE.

If adopted on a much larger scale 2 decades ago, we'd be way closer to an electric future due to hybrid batteries contributing to economies of scale & R&D in battery manufacturing.

 

[Comrade]

Almost doubling the efficiency of a gas motor with a 1kwhr battery and small electric motor is a genius design.

And that small battery is only used between ~50-65% SOC. That's the range on Toyota hybrids at least, and why the NiCD batteries outlast everything else on the vehicle.

There is much more overall efficiency to be gained with a larger battery and a battery that can take charge faster at cold temps.

ICE hybrids are nowhere near the limits of that technology. A 2018 RAV4 is 34/30 MPG. A 2019 RAV4 is 41/38. And that's just from getting a newer generation of the hybrid drivetrain.

 

[offGridDownUnder]

I also understand that they both use two power systems to do the job of one. That's the opposite of good design.

I'm not certain I can agree with this, Chalo. A problem is defined by what people want to do, and if no single system actually manages the entire domain by itself, integrating two or more well could be exactly a good design.

Two systems might mesh elegantly (always a goal for a good engineer), and otherwise some good engineering might mesh them well despite inherent differences (a source of pride for a good engineer).

 

[Hillhater]

And that small battery is only used between ~50-65% SOC. That's the range on Toyota hybrids at least, and why the NiCD batteries outlast everything else on the vehicle.

Minor correction.. the Toyota hybrid batteries are NiMh rather than NiCD.

 

[Comrade]

Minor correction.. the Toyota hybrid batteries are NiMh rather than NiCD.

You might be right. It is one of the older safer techs with a completely nonflammable electrolyte.

The reason why modern hybrids get such good mileage is not only because of capturing kinetic energy when braking, but several other externalities. For example instead of using a belt driven A/C compressor with a clutch, it is a high-voltage variable speed electric unit. The water pump is also electric instead of being belt driven. Crawling through a 5-10 minute traffic jam can be entirely using electric motor propulsion. The ICE and electric propulsion systems don't really overlap. They work in situation where they are most efficient.

 

[raylo32]

Tundra and Tacoma hybrids are NOT part of the discussion when it comes to added efficiency because these, unlike all the other Toyota hybrid systems, do not improve MPG substantially or even at all. Instead they are designed and programmed to add power and torque. But, if you have even driven the non hybrid versions, which have plenty of both, might make you wonder what Toyota was thinking. IMO, the hybrids in these are a complicated waste with no payback. Now, the other Toyota hybrids are fantastic and save a ton of fuel.

IIRC, Honda went down the power adding hybrid path way back in the day with the Accord. They added an electric motor to the Accord with the biggest and most powerful V6 to make it a little faster, with no real efficiency gain. Made no sense for Honda then, makes no sense for Toyota today.

But here’s the rub: When Toyota says that building 90 hybrids does more for the environment than one EV, it is suggesting that commuting in a hybrid Tundra is environmentally friendly. And it’s not."

 

[neptronix]

Yeah, automobiles with poor aerodynamics are not good candidates for hybridization. Except if you're doing a lot of stop 'n go miles.

 

[raylo32]

In this case it has little to do with aero. It is simply the way they designed and programmed the system to work. They even say that in the specs.

Here is a good discussion of this for Tundra: Where's the Hybrid TECH?

Yeah, automobiles with poor aerodynamics are not good candidates for hybridization. Except if you're doing a lot of stop 'n go miles.

 

[neptronix]

I thought there were some attempts to make them efficient that also failed.

Example: Prius V.. bubble shaped, but it got 40mpg on a good day.. Toyota couldn't get it right.. and hasn't attempted something like it since.

 

[Comrade]

It is simply the way they designed and programmed the system to work.

From what I know the Tundra/Tacoma "hybrid" drivetrains are a traditional drivetrain from an ICE version of the vehicle with an electric motor and a battery just bolted on top in a sense. Nothing like the real hybrids. It even still retains the same geared automatic transmission. Perhaps it has something to do with EPA MPG mandates. Perhaps they just made it because marketing said there is a market and developing a bolt on kit costs little. Who knows.

 

[Comrade]

I thought there were some attempts to make them efficient that also failed.

Tundra is a small market. Unlike Avalon/Camry/RAV4/Highlander/Sienna/Lexus/etc which all share the same hybrid drivetrain. Combined sales are huge. They would need to develop a whole new drivetrain to get 10,000+ pound tow rating that a full size truck needs to sell.