I think what people are referring to is that with a 5Ah battery, you are going to be 50% depth of discharge after 2.5ah, which is a pretty short ride. Lipo holds comparitively very stiff voltage (eg compared to lifepo4), but with Lipo as you near full depth of discharge you will see voltage drop, and cells will also get out of balance, and as the pack ages you are going to run closer and closer to the voltage cliff if you run most of that depth of discharge. I have nevery run less than a 10ah lipo pack, and I consider that pack (my 10ah), my lightweight pack. After a 10km commute (about 60% depth of discharge) that pack is starting to drop volts and I wouldn't want to push it much further (I then charge at work). I personally think a 5ah pack is pointless, you should be aiming for 50%-70% depth of discharge on your pack (50% being ideal), and if you are running 2.5ah before having to charge, you aren't getting to go very far.
To answer your question about sag, it would depend on your depth of discharge, at the very begining (if you have efficient wiring etc..) you will see almost no, or maybe 1 or 2 volts of sag (depending on amp draw obviously), but as you go deeper into the discharge, you will see several volts, and then as you go right to the end, if you push it too deep you will potentially go off the voltage cliff (when you see a curve, there is a point where the voltage just dives).
The more amphours you can afford both in terms of cost and weight, the longer the life of your pack, the more continuous amps you can draw, and the less stressed you will be about pushing your pack too deep.
In answer to your question about distance, I weigh 90ish kg, and I use about 5-6ah on a 10km commute (6.2miles) (I refuse to pedal though - other than ghost pedalling) that is with a 9c or a x5, with a BMC geared hub, I would use about 4.2ah, I am happy to do that with a 10ah pack, because that is 50-60% depth of discharge. The furthest that I would be happy getting on a 5ah pack on my usage figures, would be say the BMC using just on 4ah at 10km (6.2m), as that would be 80% depth of discharge. In my view you are definately going to need 10ah to do 10 miles, unless you are going to pedal a fair bit.