Vulture strategy wins in this scenario, lol.
Not to convince anyone, rather just to share my own strategy. Ignore as you like.
"Stable" tends towards "not changing", "unstable" towards much change. A healthy system is somewhat of a "middle way" - change, but not wild change. It seems to me that we are entering a time of wild change, and while we can take better actions to ride it, it won't be controlled or avoided.
I can't predict all the details, but I don't expect resolution soon. For myself, I am presuming Depression. Major. I am
presuming that my ability to acquire bike parts from overseas will stop and not start again soon - possibly for the rest of my life (I've reached retirement age).
In light of this, regarding my e-bike strategy, I focused on building for the rest of my life, not on short-term entertainment. My design is intended to be usable after trade largely stops. It may not happen, but that is my design goal.
The practical aspect of this is that I have been pushing to acquire what I think I might need and spares. I paused for my own finances to catch up as I went, but I did not try to predict or "game" the system - I haven't trusted that I have the option. Instead I have moved to get what I thought I would need as I could. I am stockpiling design-critical parts, and parts I can't get from junked bikes.
I'm am considering another "buy" from overseas (the USA to me) before commerce, distribution, and shipping is disrupted. As the Depression gets underway, my options to get what I want will stop. Most of what I'm thinking of buying now will be some more spares in my "camping" gear (living gear actually, as I always want to be able to sleep warm, and Wiggy's has the best kit for that). I may fill in a few holes in my e-bike spares, and after moving across Australia I'm about ready to restart development - the trike works well, but I may play with the gearing, and I want to develop the use of the battery, charging circuits, and solar panels as an auxiliary power source.
This does not read as addressing the question of "tariffs and higher prices". My own point is that this isn't actually what is happening - Trump and his tariffs are a symptom of a larger change, and you can hypnotise yourself and miss out on a better approach to preparing for your future. As the fellow said, that's where you'll be spending the rest of your life
.
30 years ago, I did not predict Trump specifically, but I did predict much of what has happened in the USA, and that is why I began working to migrate from the USA then. I consider myself well-vindicated now, just watching the news over the last 20 years.
And you may not see this as I do. I'm comfortable with my evaluation, and I've pointed it out. I see a much larger issue ripening, and I am making my choices differently in light of this - don't think the tariffs are the primary issue to consider.
