in case you had not heard. the trans alaska pipeline is shut down for 4 days now. they are trying to keep the oil inside the pipeline fluid by pumping it back and forth between pumping stations but the expectation is that if the inspectors do not allow them to restart the pumping while it is still leaking then the entire pipeline could solidify into a mass of wax and asphalt inside the pipeline. now is just about the coldest part of the year, the leak is at prudhoe so the farthest north point on the pipeline.
they have never had to do a cold restart on the pipeline, 35 years old now, corrosion in combination with the extraordinary pressures expected to get the oil moving again as it cools could cause the pipe to start leaking in a number of spots and if that happens then it could be shut down until the end of summer, and the risk that in fact it could not be restarted, though that risk is small. expect every one to blame BP for this too.
add the fire at the CNQ Horizon oil sands upgrader removing 100k bbl/day imports to the US, and the shortage of capacity on the enbridge pipeline is finally helping support the price of WTI at cushing, which has been overwhelmed with crude for awhile.
also mexico has finished upgrading their refinery at miniatitlan so that it can handle 110,000 bbl/day of maya heavy so that will not make it to the heavy crude refineries along the coast. mexican production reaching the gulf coast heavy oil refineries was as high as 1.6 million bbl/day as recently as 2006 and now it could be down to less than 500k this year. also the venezuelans are our #3 source and have recently agreed to commit huge volumes to china in exchange for $20 billion in financing, half dollars and half yuan. expect up to 300k bbl/day to go to china instead of US this year too.
did i mention that there was fancy federal commission that figured out how the guvment needed to restrict more offshore drilling until they have more regulations, more floaters going overseas and down to brazil, along with the collapse in the economy that developed to support the offshore efforts on the gulf coast. thanks to the US press super hype of tarballs on the beach. we now know that the bacteria gobbled up the methane and the majority of the spilled oil already, but you never see those stories on cable news.
now figure out how the conspiracy was able to organize all this in order to cause you to pay less for gas than bottled water. or is it more than bottled water yet?