JackFlorey
100 kW
A few thoughts on the future of (automotive) EVs.
We are going to see two big changes happen fairly soon:
1) A steady reduction in price that will result in EVs being cheaper than gas cars. As companies like Tesla switch to LFP batteries (not requiring cobalt or nickel) batteries will become cheaper and easier to make. In addition, as local sources of lithium come on line (like the Salton Sea mine) the cost of lithium will drop. These two factors will cause a significant decline in battery cost, currently the #1 cost of EVs.
In addition, a growing used EV market, along with service centers becoming more familiar with EVs, will make used EVs both cheaper and easier to fix.
2) A buildout of solar will make solar power systems more ubiquitous. In California, lower income families will get solar not by having it installed, but by buying older homes that already have solar. This will make electricity for those families cheaper, and thus significantly lower the cost of ownership of EVs.
The combination of these two factors will cause an acceleration in EV sales starting in 2-3 years, and it will continue for another 2-5 years.
The next big effect will kick in when EVs approach 25% of the vehicles on US roads. At that point, the cost of gas will plummet; demand will drop rapidly and supply will remain approximately the same. This will tend to slow down further sales increases of EVs.
The next big issue will be charging. As EVs become more common, on-road charging will become more in demand. Tesla stock will skyrocket again as investors realize that 1) Tesla owns the largest charging network in the US, 2) all EVs are converting to the Tesla charging standard (NACS) and 3) Tesla can basically charge whatever they want for charging other manufacturer's cars. Tesla will turn this money-printing machine into more chargers. The load placed on the grid will be ameliorated by new laws that require solar/storage at charging stations.
In about 3 years the load on the grid will become significant, and this will drive changes to how people charge. Right now 99% of EV owners charge at midnight because that's when the grid is least loaded (and power is cheapest for people on TOU metering.) Once tens of millions of EVs do this, then nighttime will no longer be the easy answer to when to charge. Instead, charging from 9am to noon (greatest solar generation, lowest load) will become more common. Businesses will put in outlets as employee perks, because EVs can plug in for almost no cost to them, and employees will see that as valuable.
As EVs become more connected, power companies will use the variable load they represent to control the load on the grid. Chargers will have discount prices for people willing to go on DR (demand response) where charging rates are reduced - or even reversed - during times of high grid load. This will tend to level out the load seen by the generators on the grid and reduce the peaks that currently threaten to overwhelm grids across the US.
As more and more car companies make EVs, cheap, crappy EVs will start to appear. They will get the same complaints as cheap cars have gotten since the 1940's.
Conservatives will see this as a threat, as they see any progressive change. As EVs grow more and more rapidly we will see increasing vandalism towards EVs and chargers. This will range from ICEing chargers, to the usual keying and spraypainting, to destroying chargers and threatening drivers on the road. We'll see "EVs NOT WELCOME" in parking lots in deep red counties. They will point to job losses at refineries, gas stations and drilling rigs to "prove" that EVs are destroying America.
But as today's conservative have kids, and those kids grow up with EVs, they will no longer seem new and progressive to them. And within 30-40 years EVs will simply be what people drive, no different than fuel injected cars today.
At that point we will still be selling gas cars, but in similar quantities that we sell diesels in the US today. They will become niche cars. Gas prices will continue to decline while refinery capacity far exceeds demand, but this will level out and reverse as oil becomes more scarce and as refinery capacity adjusts to the new demand. Oil demand will still be significant, with fuels for aviation and marine, long distance trucking and spaceflight remaining, and of course there will still be a huge demand for lubricants, plastics, paint and fabrics.
We are going to see two big changes happen fairly soon:
1) A steady reduction in price that will result in EVs being cheaper than gas cars. As companies like Tesla switch to LFP batteries (not requiring cobalt or nickel) batteries will become cheaper and easier to make. In addition, as local sources of lithium come on line (like the Salton Sea mine) the cost of lithium will drop. These two factors will cause a significant decline in battery cost, currently the #1 cost of EVs.
In addition, a growing used EV market, along with service centers becoming more familiar with EVs, will make used EVs both cheaper and easier to fix.
2) A buildout of solar will make solar power systems more ubiquitous. In California, lower income families will get solar not by having it installed, but by buying older homes that already have solar. This will make electricity for those families cheaper, and thus significantly lower the cost of ownership of EVs.
The combination of these two factors will cause an acceleration in EV sales starting in 2-3 years, and it will continue for another 2-5 years.
The next big effect will kick in when EVs approach 25% of the vehicles on US roads. At that point, the cost of gas will plummet; demand will drop rapidly and supply will remain approximately the same. This will tend to slow down further sales increases of EVs.
The next big issue will be charging. As EVs become more common, on-road charging will become more in demand. Tesla stock will skyrocket again as investors realize that 1) Tesla owns the largest charging network in the US, 2) all EVs are converting to the Tesla charging standard (NACS) and 3) Tesla can basically charge whatever they want for charging other manufacturer's cars. Tesla will turn this money-printing machine into more chargers. The load placed on the grid will be ameliorated by new laws that require solar/storage at charging stations.
In about 3 years the load on the grid will become significant, and this will drive changes to how people charge. Right now 99% of EV owners charge at midnight because that's when the grid is least loaded (and power is cheapest for people on TOU metering.) Once tens of millions of EVs do this, then nighttime will no longer be the easy answer to when to charge. Instead, charging from 9am to noon (greatest solar generation, lowest load) will become more common. Businesses will put in outlets as employee perks, because EVs can plug in for almost no cost to them, and employees will see that as valuable.
As EVs become more connected, power companies will use the variable load they represent to control the load on the grid. Chargers will have discount prices for people willing to go on DR (demand response) where charging rates are reduced - or even reversed - during times of high grid load. This will tend to level out the load seen by the generators on the grid and reduce the peaks that currently threaten to overwhelm grids across the US.
As more and more car companies make EVs, cheap, crappy EVs will start to appear. They will get the same complaints as cheap cars have gotten since the 1940's.
Conservatives will see this as a threat, as they see any progressive change. As EVs grow more and more rapidly we will see increasing vandalism towards EVs and chargers. This will range from ICEing chargers, to the usual keying and spraypainting, to destroying chargers and threatening drivers on the road. We'll see "EVs NOT WELCOME" in parking lots in deep red counties. They will point to job losses at refineries, gas stations and drilling rigs to "prove" that EVs are destroying America.
But as today's conservative have kids, and those kids grow up with EVs, they will no longer seem new and progressive to them. And within 30-40 years EVs will simply be what people drive, no different than fuel injected cars today.
At that point we will still be selling gas cars, but in similar quantities that we sell diesels in the US today. They will become niche cars. Gas prices will continue to decline while refinery capacity far exceeds demand, but this will level out and reverse as oil becomes more scarce and as refinery capacity adjusts to the new demand. Oil demand will still be significant, with fuels for aviation and marine, long distance trucking and spaceflight remaining, and of course there will still be a huge demand for lubricants, plastics, paint and fabrics.
