Today is year 2023, almost 2024, and the vast majority of our "recyclables" ends up in landfills, even though great energy is expended to sort and transport it separately. All projections from the past about recycling in the future have fallen flat.
Some thoughts on the future of automotive EVs
- Thread starter JackFlorey
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JackFlorey
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Nope. California regularly falls in about the middle of grid reliability. Worse than Delaware (#2 in EV uptake percentage) better than Texas (6th.)
Of all loads to add to a grid, EVs are the most benign. 99% of EV charging takes place at night when base load generation (nuclear power plants, hydro RoR) dominates and loads are low.
It should also be noted that utilities really, really want to sell power to people. But they don't want to pay a lot for new generation. The way to make that happen is to get people to use power when loads are low (at night) and not when loads are highest (at 5pm on hot days.) EVs can do that.
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JackFlorey
100 kW
One very notable exception is starter batteries. Over 99% of car starter batteries (lead-acid) are recycled, brought about by core charges and recycling requirements.
With EVs this is even easier since there is a huge demand for repurposed batteries. Model S battery modules are highly sought after for off-grid RE systems.
scianiac
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And in fact many "recyclables" have very good recycling rates, steel, glass, aluminum are all recycled at very good rates because of course those materials are valuable. Paper and plastics on the other hand have very little real value and we won't get into the reasons for that here but needless to say batteries have a lot of quite valuable minerals in them and like steel, glass, and aluminum you're trying to recycle the valuable elements which you can refine often in similar ways to how you refined it when mining but now it's much more concentrated. And as Jack astutely pointed out that is after many EV batteries get reused, I mean a good percentage of the bikes on this very website are built with 2nd life recycled batteries. I would also point out one of the main reasons why lead acid batteries are so recycled is because the lead is quite valuable and recycling them is quite lucrative. The core charge just isn't to get you to bring the old one back for ecological reasons, it's also because they are selling those old batteries to a recycler.
Hillhater
100 TW
..and the other big exception is of course the rest of the car body, chassis, mechanicals, plastics etc.…
..All the metals and plastics have a high% of recycling, and that will be even more likely with EVs for the expensive contents like copper and light alloys
jonescg
100 MW
EV batteries won't end up in landfill. That's a fact. They are too big, heavy and valuable to end up in municipal waste.
Li-ion battery recycling is super easy and cost effective; I do it in my shed using buckets, lye and sulfuric acid. I recover 100% of the copper and about 90% of the cobalt (as cobalt sulfate). I don't bother with the aluminium or lithium as there's so little of it, and raw materials are cheap enough.
Plastics were never meant to be recycled, and it's amazing that even 10% is actually recycled. It's too low value for it to ever be viable, so the solution is to just stop consuming so much of it.
Li-ion battery recycling is super easy and cost effective; I do it in my shed using buckets, lye and sulfuric acid. I recover 100% of the copper and about 90% of the cobalt (as cobalt sulfate). I don't bother with the aluminium or lithium as there's so little of it, and raw materials are cheap enough.
Plastics were never meant to be recycled, and it's amazing that even 10% is actually recycled. It's too low value for it to ever be viable, so the solution is to just stop consuming so much of it.
jonescg
100 MW
The energy mix is the largest determinant of the emissions savings of EVs, which is why zero emission electricity generation is as much of a priority as electrified transport. Nobody is suggesting we should make these changes in isolation.
I've had my EV for 3.5 years, it's done 81,000 km and 90% of the electricity came from rooftop solar. It's embedded emissions represent the vast majority of it's emissions to date, and is already better than had I bought a petrol Elantra. My situation is probably typical of a Perth motorist.
Yes, as with all things, the more you drive the more obvious the savings will be. That was my point; if you don't drive much, the EV offers a low ROI, both in terms of savings and emissions. The most car-brained places in the world (Australia, USA, NZ, Canada) would benefit the most from EVs because we're so hopelessly dependent on the car for transport.
Hillhater
100 TW
That is highly unlikely..
1) at 23,000 km /yr you are driving practically double the “average” aussie driver..Perth included.
2) full home solar charging is also a minority situation . Only 20% of homes have RT solar, and only a small percentage of those will have sufficient surplus solar capacity, and the ability to utilise daytime , at home, Charging…..if they even have an EV !
3) only 1-2% of cars on the roads are EVs, so again you are a part of a very unique , non typical, group
EVs for city/urban driving would seem ideal, but even that situation is becoming problematic. ..
parking anywhere convenient in the cities has become difficult and expensive for anyone, but for an EV driver wanting to recharge whilst parked,..well then you really are limiting your options trying to find a parking spot with a charger that is available and actually working. To avoid using public chargers , an EV owner must have at least acces to a private , off street parking spot, where a charger can operate…and i am sure you realise that is not a common situation for most city residents.
The traditional aussie unit block with underground parking has neither the power distribution capacity for multiple car charge points , and worse some are now banning EVs even parking under the apartments ( fire risk/insurance costs)
No, i suspect most EV owners will be charging from grid power either overnight at home or from public chargers, with whatever RE mix is available at that time ( not much RE at night in Oz ).
But, to me the most significant reason to encourage the adoption of EVs is the disproportionate amount of oil that each one saves from being wasted running little johnny to school, or doing the shopping, commuting , etc. Those tasks can be done using EVs, alowing our oil resources to be reserved longer for other more essential uses , chemical production, pharmcuticals, plastics, industrial processes, lubricants, etc etc…. areas where we do not have any readily available practical alternatives.
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jonescg
100 MW
I live in the suburbs and I drive a significant distance to work every day. That's the typical bit.
A combination of rooftop solar PV and an EV would therefore be a good fit for the typical Perth household. My car has 400 km of driving range, so I only need to charge it once a week. If that was from a public charge point, it would be 60% renewable.
The banning of EV charging / parking on fire grounds is bullshit, and the data backs this up; with EVs being 20 to 80 times less likely to catch fire than a petrol or diesel vehicle. 4 EV fires reported in 13 years in Australia.
Parking in cities should be difficult - we're trying to discourage it. If you work in the city, driving there should be discouraged.
If you live somewhere with no off-street parking, you're probably living within 5 km of the city which means you're both wealthy and probably well served by public transport and cycling / walking options. You might question the need for a car at all.
A combination of rooftop solar PV and an EV would therefore be a good fit for the typical Perth household. My car has 400 km of driving range, so I only need to charge it once a week. If that was from a public charge point, it would be 60% renewable.
The banning of EV charging / parking on fire grounds is bullshit, and the data backs this up; with EVs being 20 to 80 times less likely to catch fire than a petrol or diesel vehicle. 4 EV fires reported in 13 years in Australia.
Parking in cities should be difficult - we're trying to discourage it. If you work in the city, driving there should be discouraged.
If you live somewhere with no off-street parking, you're probably living within 5 km of the city which means you're both wealthy and probably well served by public transport and cycling / walking options. You might question the need for a car at all.
Hillhater
100 TW
I am guessing you are refering to data from How Many Electric Cars Catch Fire Every Year [2023 Update].
which used data sourced from the NTSB ?
But it turns out the anslysis of the data was flawed ,..they compared the number of fires to the ANNUAL SALES NUMBERS for that year, rether than the total fleet number.
…and hence those car fire stats are total BS !
The USA had 174,000 car fires in last year, from a total fleet of 266 million ICE cars….….….…
which turns out to be 64.1 per 100,000.
NOT the 1,529 per 100,000 reported for ICEs,..which would have implied over 4.0 million car fires per year !
And they revised the figure for EV fires up to 4125pa. (Up from 52 !) In a total fleet of under 3 million..
so the rate of EV fires per 100,000 would be >137.5 …
…and NOT the 25.1 reported.
And those 16,050 Hybrid fires reported, were from a hybrid car fleet of approx 6,000,000
which implies a rate of 267 per 100,000 !…….slightly less than the 3474 in that report !
So, NO !..EVs are NOT less likely to catch fire than ICEs !
..infact they are twice as likely to ignite !
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jonescg
100 MW
Bränder i eltransportmedel under 2022
Under 2022 inträffade totalt 106 bränder i olika eltransportmedel som drivs helt eller delvis med el. Flest var det i sparkcyklar med 38 bränder, följt av brand i 23 personbilar och 20 elcyklar. Bränder i hoverboards har minskat de senaste åren, medan MSB ser en ökning bland sparkcyklar.
www.msb.se
"If we look at the number of fires per car and compare it to fuel, there are still more passenger cars powered by fossil fuels that burn than those powered by lithium ion batteries in whole or in part."
How common are EV fires?
We established a global EV battery fire database to find outIf you're a regular reader of automotive news, you'd be forgiven for thinking all electric vehicles are fire prone, at risk of exploding into flames at any moment.But, in news that will annoy some, Twitter guru Elon Musk is correct...
"Our research found there's a 0.0012% chance your passenger electric vehicle battery will catch fire, which is a much smaller risk than we expected to find. Reliable sources regarding global internal combustion engine vehicle fires are difficult to verify, but overall many sources quote a 0.1% chance of your petrol or diesel car igniting."
Dude. Electric cars burn substantially less often than ICE vehicles. How you can read these stats and reach the opposite conclusion defies me.
A decent summary by those hippies at the Guardian:
Do electric cars pose a greater fire risk than petrol or diesel vehicles?
The first in a series exploring the myths and realities surrounding EVs
Hillhater
100 TW
Simple…
The data source you quoted (evfiresafe) claims there were a total of 128 EV fires in the 10 years 2010 to 2020 .…
…...whilst the NTSB and the IEA report 4125 in ONE YEAR ALONE .in the US ??
I think i know who is nearer the correct figure !!
..and The Guardian ?? ..really ?
jonescg
100 MW
Righto cobber 
.
.There is quite a difference between a lead-acid battery which is basically a chunk of lead in a thin plastic shell, and a car battery which is an armored solid block of a dozens of different metals, plastics and epoxies fused together.
jonescg
100 MW
You don't think that figure of 4125 EV fires each year might be a global total? Not a US fleet of 3 million, but ~30 million?I am guessing you are refering to data from How Many Electric Cars Catch Fire Every Year [2023 Update].
which used data sourced from the NTSB ?
But it turns out the anslysis of the data was flawed ,..they compared the number of fires to the ANNUAL SALES NUMBERS for that year, rether than the total fleet number.
…and hence those car fire stats are total BS !
The USA had 174,000 car fires in last year, from a total fleet of 266 million ICE cars….….….…
which turns out to be 64.1 per 100,000.
NOT the 1,529 per 100,000 reported for ICEs,..which would have implied over 4.0 million car fires per year !
And they revised the figure for EV fires up to 4125pa. (Up from 52 !) In a total fleet of under 3 million..
so the rate of EV fires per 100,000 would be >137.5 …
…and NOT the 25.1 reported.
And those 16,050 Hybrid fires reported, were from a hybrid car fleet of approx 6,000,000
which implies a rate of 267 per 100,000 !…….slightly less than the 3474 in that report !
So, NO !..EVs are NOT less likely to catch fire than ICEs !
..infact they are twice as likely to ignite !
Which, if correct, and it seems rather high, is more like a 0.01% probability?
I mean, if you can show me some halfway respectable research which demonstrates that EVs are statistically more likely to catch fire than an ICE car, go for it.
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I feel the same. Unfortunately, I would also like to see halfway respectable research saying that EV's are statistically less likely to catch fire than ICE's. Because as Hillhater points out, nearly every single report that cites EV's as being less fire prone is based on the AutoInsuranceEZ article from years ago, which is unfortunately flawed. Including the above link posted by jonescg to EVFireSafe. As for the guardian article, one of its sources is EVFireSafe, and the other is to the swiss page shared by jonescg (which is of course only swiss data). So out of the 3 links shared in post #61, there's only two sources, one based on flawed data.
It's a great example of confirmation bias. I love the idea of EV's, and I was all about the bandwagon about how much more statistically safe they are than ICE cars. But really, when you google it and try to look up data, you just keep getting the AutoInsuranceEZ report 90% of the time. Because of course you do, it's good data that supports what people already want to hear. I certainly want to hear it.
For the record, I don't think EV's are statistically so much more likely than ICE's to spontaneously combust. But that's all it is, an opinion, because the data is rather hard to parse, being that they're only a decade or two into mass use. I've looked, and I get pretty annoyed that nearly every source saying EV's are fireproof links the same AutoInsuranceEZ article. It's irritating. I also want there to be good data, but I don't want to fall into the trap of confirmation bias.
What I do think is more safe, is people like us who DIY and make our own EV's. Because in doing so, we are able to have a better understanding of the systems in place and the risks involved, and act accordingly. And that's not a statistic, that's just an opinion that I have, in which my self-made electric motorcycle is safer, for me and my personal use, than a mass-produced one, because I know where every wire goes and I know exactly how my battery can be expected to behave. I can't say that if I bought a Zero. Is that a statistic that I think is true, that it's safer to DIY an electric vehicle rather than buy one? Absolutely not. But I certainly feel safer on mine than something that someone else made, in this rather new area of tech. I also don't think I'm smarter than companies that make EV's, i just know exactly what I want my EV to do and I'd rather do it myself.
Jordan325ic
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Comparing my 2023 LFP model 3 to a 2023 Toyota Corolla XSE.
I paid $28k (w/ $7500 credit) Corolla $27k
Power: 271hp vs 169hp
Storage: 23 cubic feet vs 13cubic feet
Annual fuel cost (20k miles): $600 vs $2000
Warranty: 5yr/50k, 100k powertrain vs 3yr/36k, 60k powertrain.
My annual road trip to Wyoming: 21h w/ stops vs 20h w/ stops.
It’s not the 2022 EV bubble anymore, prices have come back to reality hard and they are more than competitive with ICE.
I paid $28k (w/ $7500 credit) Corolla $27k
Power: 271hp vs 169hp
Storage: 23 cubic feet vs 13cubic feet
Annual fuel cost (20k miles): $600 vs $2000
Warranty: 5yr/50k, 100k powertrain vs 3yr/36k, 60k powertrain.
My annual road trip to Wyoming: 21h w/ stops vs 20h w/ stops.
It’s not the 2022 EV bubble anymore, prices have come back to reality hard and they are more than competitive with ICE.
1% of total vehicles being EV is mass use? I don't think so. We are still about 2 decades away from any reasonable definition of mass use. As such, nobody can
Comparing statistics about new electric vehicles owned by wealthy owners to much older ICE vehicles owned by the general population is a pointless exercise.
It's like comparing rollover statistics of a Sienna minivan and a Corvette. Just looking at statistics of rollovers one would come to the conclusion that Sienna minivans are naturally less prone to rollovers. Which is obviously an absurd conclusion. It's exactly the same when trying to compare fires in ICE vs EV. Fires are overwhelmingly a function of how the vehicles are being used, not the technology itself.
JackFlorey
100 kW
The Leaf batteries, for example, are stacks of rolled-up layers of electrode and separator. Very easy to recycle. There's a place around here that does it manually.
Tesla batteries are hard to recycle because of all that caulking - but Redwood Recycling can do it.
The next generation of GM batteries will be even easier, since they are designed for recycling and reuse.
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You understand I'm trying to make the same point, right? They're still too relatively rare and new for any kind of meaningful data collection. Fine, more specific wording: they're only a decade or two into everyday usage by some members of the general public, outside of niche custom builds and DIY.
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This company just takes the whole thing and dumps it into solvent for direct materials reclamation. I'm sure it's expensive and maybe not efficient, and it's not like there are a hundred of these places that can do it yet, but it's hard to beat the fact that so little labor is involved in their process.
Hillhater
100 TW
The 4125 figure was quoted in a study for vehicle fires in the USA during 2020 when the EV fleet was approx 3.0 m.…hence the 137 per 100,000 (0.137%)
..if you want to think they were world wide fires from the < 10.0m cars, ( 2020 world total Global number of battery electric vehicles | Statista that would be 41 per 100,000.
.BUT , then we must assume the 199,000 ice fires they reported, were also from A world wide car fleet of 1.47 bn…which would be 13.5 per 100,000 !
Even at the 30 m EVs you suggested the rate would still be 14 per 100,000 !! ( same as ICE rate ?)
( But according to Statista there were only 18 m BEVs on the worlds roads in 2022, the last reported year)
…… but i agree , finding consistent data on this topic is impossible ,
..however i have seen nothing that supports ICE fires are statisticly orders of magnitude greater than EV fires..
EG….note the different conclusions in these 2 studies…
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Hillhater
100 TW
I guess they skipped a few steps..?
I cannot imagine they just dump a 100kwh of EV battery into a shredder…underwater or not !
If they did , That energy would have to go somewhere and pretty fast !..heat, fumes, etc generated.
so , i suspect they must have a test and full discharge stage for big EV packs before they shred them. ?
Hillhater
100 TW
.. But that is an unsustainable situation ( ironic for an EV ?) in that you are heavily subsidised ($7500) by every other US taxpayer.
and probably more by Tesla selling cars cheaply whilst being themselves subsidised from the Carbon Credits they sell to other Auto manufacturers !
PS how much is your insurance ?
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PRC, the largest supplier of pollutants, is also where the majority of electric cars are manufactured (and increasing). That also includes the Model 3 & Model Ys. It disturbs me greatly that nearly everything I buy now originates there (not to mention the added polution created just shipping it here) - and I don't see it ending anytime soon.
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