Hillhater said:
$100/kWh for 18650 Tesla cells implies approx 83 cells. (12Wh per cell). And hence $1.20 per cell.
Electrek states ther are 7-9 kg of cobalt in a 70 kWh Tesla pack...so approx 0.11 kg per kWh
And with 83 cells, that means approx 0.0013 kg per cell
At $30,000/tonne for cobalt, that represents $0.0397 per cell.....or 3.3 percent of that $1.20 cell cost.
Compare lithium with 63 kg in a 70kWh pack =0.9kg/kWh....0.011kg per cell
At only $15,000/tonne, that represents $0.16 per cell.......4 times the value of Cobalt .
Just scale the $$s up by 1.5 for the 21700 cell costs (approx)
The problem with cobalt is not its cost, but its availability in the future.
Thats a good breakdown of it all.
The problem I see is that the reduction of cobalt is possibly merely just another empty promise from Elon Musks that often end up being lies.
If you follow this guy who has made it his lifes work to find every dirty lie Musk as done, its hard to believe anything from Elon Musk, especially easily hideable cobalt levels in the lithium cells.
https://twitter.com/markbspiegel
Tesla stock price is down almost 10% today because their 1st quarter production/sales numbers came out and they were terrible.
And the big wall street guys think its price target is around $200. That's from JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs.
Tesla analysts are piling on after disappointing delivery numbers sent the stock plunging
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/tesla-stock-price-deliveries-fall-short-wall-street-weighs-in-2019-4-1028086767
Tesla just undermined Elon Musk’s defense against the SEC
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/04/tesla-just-undermined-elon-musks-defense-against-the-sec-jp-morgan-says.html
^This story is even more interesting, Elon's various lies or extremely off the mark production/delivery guidance, and his claim to Tesla private at $420 tweets etc is very serious and has only begun in the courts.
Normally someone whos a CEO who has done what Musk has done would be forced to out as CEO of the publically listed company, but because Musk is basically a celebrity he has got special privileges like Jussie Smollett and can avoid punishment.
But there is a chance today the court of law is going to force him to step down as CEO, it's still 50% of what happens later today simply because he has celebrity privileges but normally a CEO who has done what he has done wouldn't even be allowed to work at the company any more.
Tesla is down almost 10% merely because of the crap delivery figures, but if Musk is unlucky enough to be treated like a regular no-body CEO he will be out of Tesla at least to some degree as well, this might not happen today as the court might date the decision for another day.
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UPDATE
Elon Musk pretty much slipping out of his court problems for about 2 weeks. Again the experts say if this was a more boring "nobody CEO" then he would have been forced to step down as CEO of Tesla at a bare minimum.
This was expected to be a Jussie Smollett celebrity privilege above the law situation and so far this has been repeated for Musk.
But if suddenly this judge changes her mind and treats Musk like a regular CEO then Tesla stock could drop dramatically if Musk is forced out.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i8qt5Q8nT-g
[youtube]i8qt5Q8nT-g[/youtube]
Tesla Is Like a Soviet Factory: Production With No Concern for Actual Demand
https://www.thestreet.com/investing/tesla-stock-demand-figures-not-production-figures-14917730
https://twitter.com/TeslaCharts/status/1114119113419390977