1st.. wb9k isn't a "noob".. he's one of the few on this board that actually works for and has firsthand information of the companies involved. Also, grow up.
2nd, $/wh can be intitial/nominal or life cycle cost, or raw cells vs modules, production cost vs retail. Like statistics, you can find any number to support an argument. Most people are concerned with the up-front cost i think.. as the promise of 5k cycles doesn't hold much appeal if the payoff isn't until 2020.
Walmart right now sells junk powerwheels 12v 9.5ah SLA for $70 that wear out every year or 2. And i bet they sell 1000x more than the ebay 18ah ones at $35. No way they'd ever sell a LiFEPO4 battery for the same price that cost them 4x as much and lasts 10x as long. Even if dewalt had been successful with the A123 packs at 2x cost...a battery pack that lasts 10years is poison to profits. None of these batteries are sold because they are the best, they are sold because it makes their producers the most profit. Same for AA LSD NiMHs that cost about $2ea vs .25-50 for primary cells. 4x the cost, 500x the life. It would destroy Eveready and Duracells profits is this country suddenly all switched to rechargeables. Luckily, even tho coppertops are expensive and toxic, how many households still use them? All of them.
I'm not a consipracy guy, since it more likely apathy and ignorance accomplish far more accidently than any behind-the-scenes masterplan ever could. A lazy and uninformed consumer are battery companies most valuable resource and the supply is infinite.
A123s production costs for 2012 Q2 were around $720/kwh, even without the recall. They bled for years chasing market share to fill the 640mwh/yr capacity that was built but never needed. If they could produce @ $250/kwh they would still be relevant, even with the lower energy density. Year after year, every prediction of sales, cost reduction and tech improvement (remember EXT?) was missed by a wide margin. I don't think just because B456 *needs* to make these improvements increases the chances they will. I hope i'm wrong.
I think market forces will keep 18650s the dominant format. Sanyo and panasonic will "cooperate" in an incremental 18 month improvement cycle a la Intel vs AMD. R&D + new 1.5B battery plants will offset economy of scale, batteries that aren't pulled from a dumpster will always match what enthusiasts are willing to pay, not general consumers. The tipping point will always be a year away, and people will buy and drive electric vehicles not because it saves them money in TCOA, but because they prefer the tech.
