EV'sWillDisruptAutoIndustrySoon-TeslaHugeBatteryPriceDrops

[liveforphysics]

Luke, what is your assessment of the current cost of 18650 cells ?
There have been comments on line, from supposed "Battery industry insiders". That quality brand 18650 cells are trading wholesale for less than $1.0 per cell (in volume, obviously).
That is hard to believe when musk and others are talking of trying to get cell costs below $200 /kWhr, and raw materials have been stated at $60-$70 /kWhr.
( quality 18650's should be around 100cells per kWhr )

For 18650's, the cost per cell to make a 1.2Ah power cell, or a 3.4Ah energy cell are surprisingly close, so cost in $/Wh heavily depends on the cells energy. Right now the highest energy stuff has the most margin in it, and as energy densities grow and competition drives cells into being priced like commodity items have the most room to drop in $/Wh.

I can't tell you the cost of mfg because I don't know, but there is a ton of steps and labor involved, I've been directly immersed in it all week. I can tell you this though, making dead-nuts consistent virtually zero fall-out 18650's is a cakewalk compared to making pouches, and anyone who tells you the raw materials cost is $60-70/kWh isn't living on the same planet I am. The margins are sadly razor thin in 18650's due to so much competition.

 

[Hillhater]

.... anyone who tells you the raw materials cost is $60-70/kWh isn't living on the same planet I am. The margins are sadly razor thin in 18650's due to so much competition.

Im pretty sure that $60-70 figure for raw materials came from one of Musk's recent presentations about the Gigafactory.
Also, there is a paper from a few years ago that details the raw materials costs at $1.30 at that time, but that was also for much lower volumes .
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378775312018940

 

[liveforphysics]

.... anyone who tells you the raw materials cost is $60-70/kWh isn't living on the same planet I am. The margins are sadly razor thin in 18650's due to so much competition.

Im pretty sure that $60-70 figure for raw materials came from one of Musk's recent presentations about the Gigafactory.
Also, there is a paper from a few years ago that details the raw materials costs at $1.30 at that time, but that was also for much lower volumes .
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378775312018940

He is talking cost of mining it and refining and processing it yourself then, because it's not for sale anywhere close to that pricing.

 

[Hillhater]

Cost of raw material data from the 2012 paper..

Bill of materials per cell.
Component Cost ($)
Cathode active material (NMC) 0.52
Separator 0.14
Electrolyte 0.13
Anode active material (graphite) 0.16
Can, headers and terminals 0.17
Copper foil 0.06
Other (including scrap) 0.12
Total materials cost per cell 1.30

EDIT:
I have to admit there is a lot of conflicting numbers floating about from apparently reliable sources..
for instance ,.. total world wide annual 18650 cell production capacity..
Musk says.. 35gWhrs
Avicenne consulting says ...23.4 gWhrs
American manufacturing report says .. ~80gWhrs ,..in 2010 ( 10 Bn cells)
difficult to know who to believe ? :?