Wind and Solar vs Coal, Gasoline, Nuclear

[Punx0r]

Sure, if you average PV output over 24hrs which is facetious when you know demand is not constant over 24hrs, but anyway: "that's the equivalent of a large coal power plant a ~month" displaced by solar".

 

[Hillhater]

Output is output, ..useable power.
" Nameplate" values are just theory.
Im just making sure the facts are presented correctly.

Oh, and that 100GW/25 real GW per year of solar doesnt look to impressive compared to the 90 GW (780 TWh) of increase in electricity demand in 2017 !
..and you just know what is generating the other 65GW ??..... mostly fossils

 

[Hillhater]

That sounds suspicously like you're trying to claim wind and coal power are equal in terms of pollution on the grounds that some people do not find wind turbines aesthetically pleasing or some other ill-defined/intangible/subjective measure.

Clearly some issues are well defined, tangible, and measureable....
Class actions have already beeb started..!

Wind Industry Panics as Class Actions Loom: WHO Finds Wind Turbine Noise Harmful to Health
WHO guidelines make the future of wind farms increasingly fraught

10 October 2018
Global health authorities have finally recognised what residents living near wind farms have been saying for years; the noise they emit is more than an inconvenience, it is a risk to health.
New guidelines for Europe published by the World Health Organisation put new limits on the amount of noise that wind turbines can emit.
WHO Europe chief Zsuzsanna Jakab said “more than a nuisance, excessive noise is a health risk — contributing to cardiovascular diseases, for example.”
This is exactly what multiple researchers have been saying about wind turbines but to date they have been routinely ridiculed or ignored.
This is the first time WHO has made recommendations regarding wind turbines.

 

[Punx0r]

I don't think many would disagree that a piece of machinery kicking out powerful low-frequency or subsonic sound is a bad thing. The source of the noise needs eliminating by design or mitigating by siting them further away from inhabited buildings (planning regulations).

Output is output, ..useable power.
" Nameplate" values are just theory.
Im just making sure the facts are presented correctly.

No, you're confusing "energy" (MWh) with "power" (MW) again...

The use of gas peaker plants makes it clear that power requirements are not flat over a 24hr period. For example:


Overheating Aussie utility manager: "Strewth mate! This mid-afternoon demand peak from A/C is leaving us 500MW short on generating capacity!"

Aussie engineer: "No problem cobber, we'll throw a 500Wp PV array in the Big Sandy Dessert to cover the deficit when we need it!"

Hillhater: "No, no, no, you lot have fallen for Liberal brainwashing! The sun doesn't shine at night! PV output is 6hrs per day, so you must divide your silly "nameplate" capacity by four for "true" output and 125MW is clearly not enough to meet demand! Why, you'd need a 2000MW array and what would that cost? More than the entire Bruce Highway!"

 

[billvon]

No it is not bill .
You are forgetting Capacity Factors !

That assumes a 24% capacity factor, valid for good solar locations (Riverside, CA or Grand Junction, CO or Tampa, FL.)

 

[Hillhater]

Bill...
A cording to IRENARE, the worlds installed solar generating capacity at the end of 2017, was 400,000 GWh.
....or 46 GW average....from an installed capacity of 400 GW
https://public.tableau.com/views/IRENAREsourceRenewableEnergyStatisticsTimeSeries2/Charts?:embed=y&:showVizHome=no&publish=yes&:toolbar=no

 

[Hillhater]

No, you're confusing "energy" (MWh) with "power" (MW) again...

The use of gas peaker plants makes it clear that power requirements are not flat over a 24hr period. For example:


Overheating Aussie utility manager: "Strewth mate! This mid-afternoon demand peak from A/C is leaving us 500MW short on generating capacity!"

Aussie engineer: "No problem cobber, we'll throw a 500Wp PV array in the Big Sandy Dessert to cover the deficit when we need it!"

No confusion on my part...you need both,... power for the peaks, and energy for the overall demand.
The problem you keep avoiding is that the "peaks" in most countrys occurr outside useable sunlight hours,
Infact Australias demand peaks at 6-7 pm, but demand never drops much below 60% of that peak, even at the 4am minimum demand point.
This is the elusive "Base Load" that is unmentionable in RE language, but a fact in the real world.
All the solar and batteries in the world, cannot supply that demand currently. (Or wind,...as SA are finding!)

 

[cricketo]

The problem you keep avoiding is that the "peaks" in most countrys occurr outside useable sunlight hours,
Infact Australias demand peaks at 6-7 pm, but demand never drops much below 60% of that peak, even at the 4am minimum demand

I did some fact-checking on that just now. What I found was that US peak demand is still in the middle of the day, around 3pm. What I also found, while Australia does have the peak at those evening hours, it happens because... rooftop solar has shifted it there.

http://theconversation.com/slash-australians-power-bills-by-beheading-a-duck-at-night-27234

 

[billvon]

I did some fact-checking on that just now. What I found was that US peak demand is still in the middle of the day, around 3pm.

Very true. That's when A/C loads are the highest - but before factories start to shut down.

Here in California the same is true. However, the demand minus solar curve (i.e. the "duck curve") is starting to peak at around 6-7 pm - because that's when you start to lose solar and people are getting home. It's a good problem to have, because you have already eliminated the 3pm peak problem with solar, so your conventional generation plants see a lower peak demand.

 

[Hillhater]

The problem you keep avoiding is that the "peaks" in most countrys occurr outside useable sunlight hours,
Infact Australias demand peaks at 6-7 pm, but demand never drops much below 60% of that peak, even at the 4am minimum demand

I did some fact-checking on that just now. What I found was that US peak demand is still in the middle of the day, around 3pm. What I also found, while Australia does have the peak at those evening hours, it happens because... rooftop solar has shifted it there.

http://theconversation.com/slash-australians-power-bills-by-beheading-a-duck-at-night-27234

That "flys" against the much vaunted "Duck Curve" demand profile that most authorities quote for the USA, which puts the peak at 6-8 pm .
https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/eia-charts-californias-real-and-growing-duck-curve#gs.6MBK9o0
And sure, rooftop solar plays a part, as does more efficient A/C and industrial processes (cost driven).....
......but at the end of the day, we are talking about a UTILITY supply issue, independent of what factors may dictate that demand.
PS...Australias rooftop solar generation data is all "estimated" . There is no system for monitoring the actual energy generated, the estimates are purely based on total panel sales, with suitable fudge factors applied.

 

[cricketo]

That "flys" against the much vaunted "Duck Curve" demand profile that most authorities quote for the USA, which puts the peak at 6-8 pm .
https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/eia-charts-californias-real-and-growing-duck-curve#gs.6MBK9o0
And sure, rooftop solar plays a part, as does more efficient A/C and industrial processes (cost driven).....
......but at the end of the day, we are talking about a UTILITY supply issue, independent of what factors may dictate that demand.
PS...Australias rooftop solar generation data is all "estimated" . There is no system for monitoring the actual energy generated, the estimates are purely based on total panel sales, with suitable fudge factors applied.

I don't know if perhaps I'm failing reading comprehension, but the article you've cited talks about California - pretty much Australia of the US in terms of solar installations. Look at US averages, and you should see a different picture.

Back to Australia, there is no need to know how much exactly energy is being generated by solar. When analyzing peak load trends it is sufficient to look at the previous peak load times, to determine there is a shift. And I'm pretty sure grid operators know exactly when it was, as they had to fire up their peakers to compensate.

Sure we've observed some reduction in consumption due to appliances becoming more energy efficient (and some increase now due to EVs), but can you show me where does it say A/C has become order of magnitude more efficient to explain such significant shift in peak load times ? And that's even without trying to correlate those shifts with number of solar deployments (I'm sure some of that data is available).

 

[billvon]

That "flys" against the much vaunted "Duck Curve" demand profile that most authorities quote for the USA, which puts the peak at 6-8 pm .

The "duck curve" is not demand. It is demand MINUS solar contribution. In other words, by the time you get to a duck curve, you are already winning big. Your 3pm peak demand is gone, and you don't need as many peakers. Your new issue is that you have to ramp up faster to a new, lower demand. That's why people talk about it.

 

[Hillhater]

It is the demand that the grid has to support
.... including any solar contribution in the grid supply.

 

[billvon]

It is the demand that the grid has to support.... including any solar contribution in the grid supply.

Then I will just include the contribution from natural gas plants (just because) and say that it's easier than ever to support the grid with solar.

 

[Hillhater]

:? :? Now you have lost me ! ?...
What exactly is the point you are making ? ......Include gas plants ?? t
Gas, coal, etc (Fossil) fueled plants are obviously in the existing grid sources, they ARE the main source of power keeping the lights on and the fridge cool all night.
In Simple terms.... Currently, the grid demand peaks at 6-7 pm, way past peak solar input, ..such that the highest capacity generation has to be sourced from mainly fossil generation.
I suspect that you are heading towards the suggestion the "rooftop" / independent solar supply is going to be a big benifit to the grid supply system.?
If so, i hope you ponder on the wider implications of that senario !

 

[cricketo]

:? :? Now you have lost me ! ?...
What exactly is the point you are making ? ......Include gas plants ?? t
Gas, coal, etc (Fossil) fueled plants are obviously in the existing grid sources, they ARE the main source of power keeping the lights on and the fridge cool all night.
In Simple terms.... Currently, the grid demand peaks at 6-7 pm, way past peak solar input, ..such that the highest capacity generation has to be sourced from mainly fossil generation.
I suspect that you are heading towards the suggestion the "rooftop" / independent solar supply is going to be a big benifit to the grid supply system.?
If so, i hope you ponder on the wider implications of that senario !

You win, the Earth is flat.

 

[TheBeastie]

Apparently, a major new milestone was hit with the Tokamak fusion reactor.
This stuff has always been like chasing a rainbow, but who knows maybe they really are getting somewhere now.
Gotta admit the thing looks friggen awesome.

Nuclear scientists take leap towards fusion power as they test revolutionary new 15MILLION degrees celsius energy generator
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6348885/Nuclear-scientists-leap-fusion-power-test-revolutionary-new-energy-generator.html

Thought this Hydrogen video was interesting.

https://youtu.be/PdmHH6KY_Qs
[youtube]PdmHH6KY_Qs[/youtube]

 

[billvon]

:? :? Now you have lost me ! ?...
What exactly is the point you are making ? ......Include gas plants ??

You included solar in your curve. I included gas plants.

When you do it it's OK. When I do it you are SHOCKED SHOCKED. You are a funny guy!

 

[cricketo]

You included solar in your curve. I included gas plants.

When you do it it's OK. When I do it you are SHOCKED SHOCKED. You are a funny guy!

:lol:

 

[Hillhater]

:? :? Now you have lost me ! ?...
What exactly is the point you are making ? ......Include gas plants ??

You included solar in your curve. I included gas plants.

When you do it it's OK. When I do it you are SHOCKED SHOCKED. You are a funny guy!

The solar which was excluded, is "roof top" solar, ..which is not part of grid generation.
Nobody has a gas peaker plant on their roof !

 

[billvon]

The solar which was excluded, is "roof top" solar, ..which is not part of grid generation.

Really? I guess the ~40kwhr or so I export to the grid a day isn't really grid generation. Sucks. My company will be even more sad to hear that. On hot days we export several megawatts, both from a gas turbine and from ~1MW roof top solar. But since that's not part of grid generation, I guess we don't get any credit for that, either.

But wait! If I am not part of grid generation, then I am not part of grid consumption, either! Sweet. Goodbye monthly utility fees!

 

[Hillhater]

Thats all very impressive bill..but i hope you dont consider yourself typical of the average US citizen, or even typical of those minority of citizens who do have RT solar installed. Few systems export more than a minor % of their generation capacity.
But even if they could, its all irrelevent anyway.
At that 6-8pm peak (or the 6-7 am peak) ..any amount of solar contribution during those periods will be insignificant, hence the need for high levels of fossil fueled capacity to remain available.

 

[Punx0r]

At higher/lower latitudes there is a lot of daylight at those times in the summer.

Not much good for winter heating, but OK for summer AC.

 

[cricketo]

Thats all very impressive bill..but i hope you dont consider yourself typical of the average US citizen, or even typical of those minority of citizens who do have RT solar installed. Few systems export more than a minor % of their generation capacity.
But even if they could, its all irrelevent anyway.
At that 6-8pm peak (or the 6-7 am peak) ..any amount of solar contribution during those periods will be insignificant, hence the need for high levels of fossil fueled capacity to remain available.

Jeez...

 

[Punx0r]

It is wonderfully circular to argue solar is no good because it can't offset a late-evening demand peak, when the reason that peak occurs is because solar has offset the previous, larger mid-late afternoon demand peak.