Tesla Model 3

[Ohbse]

Most people could drive a leaf on a daily basis, early Leaf's are now ridiculously cheap. I could buy one on finance and cover it, registration, servicing and insurance purely off the savings on my weekly petrol spend. From a financial standpoint it's already a no-brainer. At the moment the only reason I don't is styling and performance.

Just how many of those early Leafs are available in NZ ? ...must be a very different situation to Oz where there are never more than a few to be found...and then what is the "rediculously cheap" price they ask.?
There are none under $15k over here, and they are 2010/11 models with some pretty predicable battery issues.
They are no good for our country dwellers or out of town commuters who may have off street parking, leaving only the city dwellers... ( mostly in apartments these days in Oz)..to figure out how to get a power feed onto the street or into the underground parking !
..Sorry , but full EVs are only an option for a minority of folk with the funds and facilities to allow some form of practical use.
This is why Hybrids are so much more popular and practical currently..at least a step in the right direction.

There are about a dozen listed for sale *each day*, currently on trademe.co.nz there are 276 listed. I've been keeping an eye on prices, had several opportunities to purchase a 2011 or 2012 with <15k km and 12/12 battery bars for less than 14k. 2012 fully optioned model in black with 9000km on the clock sold for $12,750 NZD ($9,300 USD for the americans) the other day. I've viewed a couple of these examples in person and they were practically brand new vehicles. Key difference between the Aussie and NZ markets is our more permissive import laws, we don't have a domestic car market to artificially protect (not that you have much of one left either).

I don't disagree that hybrids are a step in the right direction, I don't disagree with people choosing to drive them, I just disagree with making MORE of them, or stating that when purchasing a NEW vehicle that 100% EV's are not suitable or impractical, that will not be the case in the very immediate future. I also think you're forgetting about the literally millions of people in Australia alone that live in suburban environments, who have a house or townhouse with the ability to park and charge offstreet in a garage/carport or designated carpark. There are many, many people who primarily commute via public transportation but still require a vehicle for various reasons, those users are ideal targets for EV's with limited range but affordable entry points. As the slightly newer models continue to depreciate, the 30kwh pack becomes an option which helps with range considerably.

 

[Hillhater]

CarSales.com.au ..the largest online used car site, lists 13 Leafs.
https://www.carsales.com.au/car/dealer/private/demo/nissan/leaf/?offset=0&setype=pagination&silo=stock&vertical=car&WT.z_srchsrcx=makemodel&sortby=TopDeal&
Cheapest is Au$23,000 (US$17,500) for a 2012 model with 1 month warranty !
Not hard to see why they are not popular as you can buy any one of the top hatchs, new ..( if thats your thing !).. For less money with a 5 , 7 or even 8 (Peugeot)'year factory warranty.!
..By coincidence, i have just sold a friends 2009 Nissan Tiida (ICE predecessor of the Leaf ?.. Nearly). For Au$4500. Which was a perfect small and economical hatch in top condition !

 

[Ohbse]

The issue for you is not one of EV unsuitability, it's your governments outdated and un-needed protectionism putting road blocks in front of cheap japanese imports. If you like you could fly to NZ, buy a leaf and do a personal import back to Australia for a few $k

Also worth mentioning as I've been monitoring prices for perhaps 4 or 5 months prices have dropped quite considerably as supply has increased, I suspect I could probably pick up a 2011 with slightly higher K's and 11/12 battery bars (expected degradation) for about $11k NZD landed, complied, registered. At current interest rates this would cost me about $65 a month minimum payment. Given that my wife and I spend around $250 NZD a month on fuel and very conservatively I would spend ~$45 on power, you can see why I consider this a no-brainer. I can cover the financial obligation, fuel the car and still have $140 cash in hand every month to either pay down the principal or spend on more bikes.

Even as a second vehicle, as long as I offset a number of trips I would do in the current car it would effectively cost me nothing, even including registration, insurance, inspections etc.

I'm probably not going to do the above (unless they get *really* cheap), because frankly the Leaf is too slow and too ugly. If I drove a car on a daily basis it might be different, but the majority of the distance I drive is either in a work vehicle commuting between datacentres or in personal one on the weekend for social occasions. All of my commuting is done via ebike powered by the sun already and that's obviously the way to go for efficient transportation.

 

[Hillhater]

Model 3 initial specs and pictures leaked, but WTF has happened ?
http://www.caradvice.com.au/554050/2018-tesla-model-3-spied-and-specifications-leaked/
I hope these are some form of pre production disguised test vehicles, because it is not what i was expecting.
Performance is ok i guess at 5.6 sec to 60 , and 215 mile range,....but no hatch ? Low on luggage space, and boy , did someone fall asleep in the styling meetings ?

 

[Warren]

hillhater,

I am curious what you were expecting. It looks like a 3/4 scale Model S, with less battery and motor, just what I assumed it would be. At half the price, what else could it be?

 

[TheBeastie]

Model 3 initial specs and pictures leaked, but WTF has happened ?
http://www.caradvice.com.au/554050/2018-tesla-model-3-spied-and-specifications-leaked/
I hope these are some form of pre production disguised test vehicles, because it is not what i was expecting.
Performance is ok i guess at 5.6 sec to 60 , and 215 mile range,....but no hatch ? Low on luggage space, and boy , did someone fall asleep in the styling meetings ?

Because it is a USD $35,000 electric car that is mostly heavy but cheap steel instead of very expensive-light aluminium body I am still surprised by the 5.6sec to 60mph.
Styling looks seem about right as well.
The idea that its designed to bring people into dealerships to upsell to a more expensive model is weird because I thought Elon didn't believe in dealership stores, I know it works though, years ago I went into check out the latest Lancer at the time and bought a pre-owned Magna that was used by a dealership executive at the time with low mileage on the meter.

Considering the price of core Tesla cell metals this might be as cheap as it ever gets. You can't get any cheaper then 40,000 African kids digging up cobalt etc.
https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2016/01/amnesty-international-report-children-mine-cobalt-used-in-gadget-batteries/

Here is the chart of Cobalt which is crucial for decent performance and lifetime out of lithium cells, the Lithium metals chart looks exactly the same btw.


Its the exact same thing 100 years ago now when Lead-acid battery EVs owned the car market but as the industry grew it just couldn't keep up despite the industry having well-organized battery swap programs etc.
Electric cars owned it all and have the records for the first cars to break 100KMph/60mph https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/La_Jamais_Contente

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_electric_vehicle#Golden_age

The things that are different this time around is peoples standards on whats acceptable for a "renewable" world, no one cares its African kids that help make it all possible as long as this "clean energy" is powered by the brute fear of increasing carbon dioxide levels makes it all OK.

Our latest mining technologies should propel us for a further amount of time along the line of metal based battery fuels this time around but I doubt it will kill oil which will remain cheap and plentiful for a long time, and who knows maybe folks will catch onto the idea that carbon dioxide helps plants grow and is in fact as "renewable" as it gets https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P2qVNK6zFgE , while metals just like the lead-acid days of EVs past do nothing good at all in the long term for the environment https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2016/02/an-american-history-of-lead-poisoning/462576/

I think as long as we have sold our electricity grids to hedge funds and shut down our cheap coal mines so that its all locked in and based on oil imports which is where the heaviest money investment has been placed over the last decade then they got us right where they wanted us.

 

[Hillhater]

hillhater,

I am curious what you were expecting. It looks like a 3/4 scale Model S, with less battery and motor, just what I assumed it would be. At half the price, what else could it be?

I was expecting something more appealing visually.
The front looks like a '90s VW beetle , and the rear is just dated ..
You may think it is an scalled down mod S , but the shape just does not suit the smaller proportions.
The S and the X are well proportioned and styled designs, but this is very much the ugly runt of the family.

 

[Warren]

hillhater,

This is the 2017 Model S front end.

https://www.tesla.com/tesla_theme/assets/img/modals/model-select-models.png?20160811

And the Model 3.

https://electrek.files.wordpress.com/2017/05/tesla-model-3-roof-rack-e1495656859717.jpg?quality=82&strip=all&w=1600&h=787

Eyes of the beholder, I guess. I find the front of the S less appealing, with the pointless horizontal bars in the corners.

Designers always say it is harder to make a small car look good. But then, I prefer the Bolt for its utility.

 

[Arlo1]

I like the model 3 I think it looks good.

Try to build a EV of your own that has the renage and performance for that price. GOOD frocking LUCK!

This is just the beginning there will be revisions to the Model 3 it will get nicer.

Also 5.6 sec 0-60 is the base model which is almost as fast as the base model S

I expect the performance version to do 0-60 in the 3's

I think they are doing it right.

 

[nicobie]

Now if it just had a ICE range extender, it would be a car worth having. 215 miles doesn't cut it for me.

 

[Arlo1]

Now if it just had a ICE range extender, it would be a car worth having. 215 miles doesn't cut it for me.

First that's not announced yet. All they said is the BASE model will go MORE THEN 215 miles!
Second it will be REAL MILES not taking it easy trying to conserve energy
Third they will offer bigger battery options.

Fourth HOW Far do you drive in 1 average day?

 

[Hillhater]

I dont think i have ever heard of a production car that switched from steel to Al body construction during its initial production runs. ?
That has enormous implications on so many aspects of design, manufacture, and certification.
Hard to understand the reasoning behind the need to start in steel if Al is the intention for long term production.?

 

[Arlo1]

I dont think i have ever heard of a production car that switched from steel to Al body construction during its initial production runs. ?
That has enormous implications on so many aspects of design, manufacture, and certification.
Hard to understand the reasoning behind the need to start in steel if Al is the intention for long term production.?

Not one thing you have herd about the model 3 as actual production announcements. We don't know if its AL or steal or anything really.

They will do the final unveil then you will know what the first production Model 3s will have for specs until then you are just guessing.

 

[Chalo]

Now if it just had a ICE range extender, it would be a car worth having. 215 miles doesn't cut it for me.

How many days out of the year do you drive more than 215 miles? That sounds like the talk of the guy who buys a big assed truck for hauling his boat twice a year, then drives it to work every day.

(Edited to remove a criticism that came across as personal, but was intended to be general.)

 

[Hillhater]

Its also a good word to describe someone who does not understand other peoples life circumstances, constraints, needs, and options.
Lack of consideration for other peoples situations is a basic character flaw.

 

[Chalo]

Its also a good word to describe someone who does not understand other peoples life circumstances, constraints, needs, and options.
Lack of consideration for other peoples situations is a basic character flaw.

.

There's no life circumstance that makes doing the wrong thing, at everyone else's expense, into the right thing. That said, Nicobie is clearly not more wrong than practically everyone else in this deranged place where doing the wrong thing is both encouraged and expected.

 

[nicobie]

I average about 30 miles a day with my Volt. But at least once a month I like to take long trips over 200 miles. Trying to charge while on road trips just doesn't work for me. My only other car is a Astro van that gets really shitty mileage and is too old to trust on a long trip. I only use it to haul stuff.

If it ever gets to a point where charging stations are everywhere and I can get a full charge in <15 minutes, then I'll buy a true EV.

I don't see why I need to be a slave to a car's behavior. I expect it to be the other way around.

Cheers....

 

[Arlo1]

So.... You never stop for food, coffee, bathroom breaks etc.?
For the time it takes to buy a coffee you have about 100miles of charge!
On top of that Tesla will offer bigger battery options on the model 3 just spend a couple thousand extra and get 300+miles range......

 

[Ianhill]

So.... You never stop for food, coffee, bathroom breaks etc.?
For the time it takes to buy a coffee you have about 100miles of charge!
On top of that Tesla will offer bigger battery options on the model 3 just spend a couple thousand extra and get 300+miles range......

This is where the problem comes in, spend a couple thousand extra and the model 3 is no longer the peoples car it just becomes another model s out of reach to most.
Tesla dealt itself a bad egg buying solar city no doubt and as said before his car and battery technology is majority owned by other companys there's no reason why VW group will not fight back and slow the current trend if there is one outside of the hype as the sales figures are not really that great he has the sizzle with out the steak as chalos would say.
The giga factory is running a cell game at the moment battery's will go through a developing change but there's no reason he can not tool up and produce a new standard when it comes but as for the model 3 and the car side of things he is not out of the woods yet there still alot of promises to deliver on and company respect that can go either way space x is the winner by here it's making massive amounts of cash with very little in the way of competition it's ground breaking with the steak the sizzle and the while pan no one's done this before land a rocket back to earth that's where he will always have a business no doubt.

 

[Hillhater]

I dont think i have ever heard of a production car that switched from steel to Al body construction during its initial production runs. ?
That has enormous implications on so many aspects of design, manufacture, and certification.
Hard to understand the reasoning behind the need to start in steel if Al is the intention for long term production.?

Not one thing you have herd about the model 3 as actual production announcements. We don't know if its AL or steal or anything really.

They will do the final unveil then you will know what the first production Model 3s will have for specs until then you are just guessing.

well, its true you cannot belive anything for certain until its rolled out in the metal to the customers,....
...but its more than a guess as some of the specs are up on the Tesla site , and whilst its still not clear exactly what the first (or subsequent) runs of M3 will be made from, it does clearly state they will have "Aluminium and Steel body" !
https://www.tesla.com/compare

Full Self-Driving Capability
Aluminum and Steel Body
Coil Suspension
Optional Glass Roof
18" or 19" Wheels

 

[Ianhill]

I dont think i have ever heard of a production car that switched from steel to Al body construction during its initial production runs. ?
That has enormous implications on so many aspects of design, manufacture, and certification.
Hard to understand the reasoning behind the need to start in steel if Al is the intention for long term production.?

Not one thing you have herd about the model 3 as actual production announcements. We don't know if its AL or steal or anything really.

They will do the final unveil then you will know what the first production Model 3s will have for specs until then you are just guessing.

well, its true you cannot belive anything for certain until its rolled out in the metal to the customers,....
...but its more than a guess as some of the specs are up on the Tesla site , and whilst its still not clear exactly what the first (or subsequent) runs of M3 will be made from, it does clearly state they will have "Aluminium and Steel body" !
https://www.tesla.com/compare

Full Self-Driving Capability
Aluminum and Steel Body
Coil Suspension
Optional Glass Roof
18" or 19" Wheels

It's proberly a steel body structure with alu bonnet/hood, boot/trunk and door panels or some sort of mixture to keep costs down without adding to much additional weight. I think this car as a whole is going to be tough to get in on budget, time and quality.
Plus we have seen the tesla truck along with all his other ventures is he just playing a betting game with many horses it would be tough to say no he is spreading himself thin and it's not always gone smooth to say the least but he has kicked the market into gear so he has delivered on that promise but there was no time scale to creating a gap and demand that other companys soon started to notice.

 

[Hillhater]

Musk sure has started something, but im not sure he has kicked the market for EVs off , or created a demand that others want to leap into.
EV sales are not exactly rocketing away month on month, most expansion is new markets opening and demand supported by large subsidies or tax refunds.
Other manufacturers are being "forced" to respond even though they know they will have to sell vehicles with hugely reduced margins , if not a significant loss, just to keep Tesla contained in its market space.

 

[Arlo1]

When you look at it from a graph from 2010 till now it shows how we are at the start of a S curve. The word is out and things will start taking off shortly.

 

[Hillhater]

yes, and in 2016 sales were 775,000, or 42% up on 2015 ...but that is less than the % increase 2014 -2015 ..or 2013 - 2014 ..
Do you see the indication ?..sales are increasing but not accelerating.
Further, if you look at where those sales are, the largest amount by far, practically half, is China, where the market is more than a little distorted.
some key western, highly motorised markets, saw much less growth, with some even reversed (japan)
Total EV sales were less than 1% of all car sales in 2016 ( 88 million), so there is a huge market that is not yet convinced by the EV sell

 

[jonescg]

I'd say the exponent in the growth curve lowered a little last year because of a lack of inventory. People are holding out for the Model 3 and the latest 60 kWh Leaf, as well as several offerings from other manufacturers. The dry spell will come to an end next year.