Some thoughts on the future of automotive EVs

[Hillhater]

? What maintenance? My solar system and Volt electrical system have NEVER needed any attention. I have owned both for ~7 years.

?? Volt never had a service,? no battery checks. ?
? Solar never needed attention ?… Most solar systems benefit from cleaning at least every year , and few make it that long without an inverter issue (mine certainly didnt !)
maybe you ment to say ” it never GOT any attention” ….rather than it never needed any.?

 

[Hillhater]

Because the manufacturers are trying to retire their development costs quickly, and because, as always...

The market will bear it. That's capitalism, like it or not.

That is what i have been trying to tell Jack , ..but he believes that has all been paid down already !
….And i am not sure the market is bearing it too well going by all those scaling back of production reports , price reductions, , and financial losses from VW, Ford, GM , Merc, etc etc ?

 

[Comrade]

? What maintenance? My solar system and Volt electrical system have NEVER needed any attention. I have owned both for ~7 years.

You had no issues during years 0 to 7. I'm sure it will be very different in year 15-25+ of ownership.

The median age of a vehicle right now is 12.5 years. Low income families drive 15+ year vehicles. On average.

 

[JackFlorey]

I dont know exactly what point you are making here, but a “production run” is very different to a yearly sales total.!

Yearly sales totals, over time, lead to total production runs.

If you are going to condemn EVs because no one has been making them for more than 15 years - well, isn't that special. Better condemn any new technology then.

…if EVs are as cheap to produce as ICEs, and batteries cost $90/kWh or less , ….why then is an EV $15,000+ more than an equivalent ICE ?.

Simple - they're not. As of last year, average EV prices were $10,000 more than similar gas cars. This year the data is not in yet (of course) but there will be an even smaller difference. Which is why soon EVs will be lower in purchase price than gas cars.

We are seeing this in action at Tesla. Because of their huge profit margins, they can easily drop prices to undercut their competition. This process will continue - and will lead to cheaper and cheaper EVs.

 

[JackFlorey]

You have a lot of wildly specific predictions that almost certainly will not be reality in the future, but I thought this was funny. You think the same lower income families that don't mow their lawn, don't change their engine oil and drive on bald tires will maintain their old solar panel systems and old EV vehicles?

Yes. The same lower income families that buy a used car and don't know it's a flex fuel vehicle will buy (or rent) a house and never know there's a solar power system on top. They will just marvel at their lower power bills.

 

[JackFlorey]

You had no issues during years 0 to 7. I'm sure it will be very different in year 15-25+ of ownership.

Put a solar power system on my first house 21 years ago. Still working fine, zero maintenance.

 

[Comrade]

lower income families that buy a used car

The year will be 2050 and they will buy a 2030 model year used gasoline car. That's my prediction.

 

[JackFlorey]

The year will be 2050 and they will buy a 2030 model year used gasoline car. That's my prediction.

We will see!

If all they have to do is get to work/school, they may well choose the cheaper EV with the worn out battery.

 

[harrisonpatm]

We will see!

If all they have to do is get to work/school, they may well choose the cheaper EV with the worn out battery.

I'm looking forward to buying the 20-year-old POS Tesla, Leaf or whatever with a totally dead battery and swapping in whatever new battery tech is around then

 

[Comrade]

and swapping in whatever new battery tech is around then

What are the chances that car DIY by then gets such a bad rap from all the fires that you won't be able to insure that contraption? And the house with the garage it's parked in or next to.

 

[JackFlorey]

I'm looking forward to buying the 20-year-old POS Tesla, Leaf or whatever with a totally dead battery and swapping in whatever new battery tech is around then

Yep. And at that point there will even be thousands of garages that will do that for you - the same way you can get a garage to shoehorn a new gas engine in a car that wasn't designed for it.

 

[harrisonpatm]

And at that point there will even be thousands of garages that will do that for you

That's something I won't count on. I already feel, and am training myself in, the use and proliferation of whatever is lying around in surplus. There's a lot already. I don't think that's going away anytime soon.

 

[nicobie]

You had no issues during years 0 to 7. I'm sure it will be very different in year 15-25+ of ownership.

Why would you say that? Is there something you know that I don't. I figure that the EV part should last about 15 years or more (with a diminished range) and that leaves the ICE motor that at 15 years will still be almost new as now we don't use it more than 1k miles/year so it should last as long as a new motor (another 7 years or so).

Any way you look at it, I will be getting more bang for the buck than any new non EV driven car out there.

 

[JackFlorey]

That's something I won't count on. I already feel, and am training myself in, the use and proliferation of whatever is lying around in surplus.

I agree. And there will be hundreds, then thousands, then tens of thousands of people like you.

 

[Hillhater]

 

[nicobie]

If I believed anything youtube I'd say that people are stupid. I mean look at the number of trump lovers.

 

[Hillhater]

If I believed anything youtube I'd say that people are stupid. I mean look at the number of trump lovers.

A better example of stupidity would be to look at the number of Biden voters !

 

[ZeroEm]

Just wondering if anyone understands how much money it takes to maintain an ICE. Don't know how anyone can say it's only 4k US dollars in 100k miles. Just motor oil changes and brakes is around $2k.

I bought my EV because I can not work on ICE anymore, my body will not let me. I see all cars as melting ice. My leaf battery dropped 15 miles this year. Was dropping about 3 miles a year. Its 2013 so yes it's time for a replacement, car or battery?.

My advise to anyone who wonders about ICE vs EV is the right tool for the job. ICE is still good at highway speeds with low emissions. EVs are great in traffic and stop lights, no emissions. figure it out.

 

[Hillhater]

My advise to anyone who wonders about ICE vs EV is the right tool for the job. ICE is still good at highway speeds with low emissions. EVs are great in traffic and stop lights, no emissions. figure it out.

That is a good quick summary..EV for city/urban use,..ICE for intercity/ touring (and towing).
But the world is never quite so simple !
Not many can afford the 2 vehicle solution, so a compromise would be needed fo a vehicle that can serve both situations.
That is then further complicated by the serious lack of public chargers on most intercity routes and rural areas.
..and more recently insurance for EVs has become a hot topic, with quotes increasing dramatically due to repair costs , fire risk, etc……also some insurance companies flatly refusing to insure EVs. .
(infact some domestic household insurance companies will not offer property cover if an EV is to be garaged there.!
…So the choice becomes restricted to whatever is affordable, insurable , and practical for all uses.
..not much figuring needed !

As an Engineer, i appreciate the EV concept and advantages over ICEs, but i cannot ignor their shortcomings such as initial cost, risky battery tech, unacceptable recharging issues, repair costs, technical support, etc…until those (and other) issues are resolved, i cannot justify owning one.
And anyone telling themselves that they are saving the planet by driving an eV to reduce CO2 ,..they need to understand the concept of “frontloading” initial Carbon content , and exactly where the electricity will be generated for recharging .?

 

[Chalo]

…So the choice becomes restricted to whatever is affordable, insurable , and practical for all uses.
..not much figuring needed !

If "all uses" means all practical daily uses, I agree... only EVs fit the bill.

In the world I inhabit, it becomes a little more nuanced. The car in my household is 34 years old, with over 400,000 km on the clock, and even today it consumes about 8.5l/100 km. It's clearly more sustainable and resource efficient to keep it running for whatever duties are best served by a car than to replace it with a new EV.

But at the time it must be replaced, it's equally clear that the correct choice is an EV.

 

[jonescg]

The car in my household is 34 years old, with over 400,000 km on the clock, and even today it consumes about 8.5l/100 km. It's clearly more sustainable and resource efficient to keep it running for whatever duties are best served by a car than to replace it with a new EV.

This is true to some extent - if you don't drive all that much (like less than 5000 km a year) you can justify this position. But if you find yourself driving more than 15,000 km a year, it doesn't take many years before the operational emissions match the embedded emissions of a new EV. EE does a pretty good breakdown:

 

[jonescg]

And anyone telling themselves that they are saving the planet by driving an eV to reduce CO2 ,..they need to understand the concept of “frontloading” initial Carbon content , and exactly where the electricity will be generated for recharging .?

This has to be one of the most extensively studied fields in transport engineering.

On carbon dioxide emissions alone, the EV's front-loaded emissions are up to 50% more than an ICE. But after just 3 years of operation, the emissions for both vehicles are the same. Every year after that, the EV emits fewer (or potentially no) emissions in operation. The Australian grid runs about 40% renewables, and this increases every year.


The decommissioning of the EV 20-25 years later may be in the form of battery re-purposing, or eventually, recycling. Use of recycled minerals to build new EV batteries literally halves the emissions intensity of the battery, over virgin mineral extraction.

 

[Hillhater]

This has to be one of the most extensively studied fields in transport engineering.

Certainly it is , but unfortunately the conclusions differ greatly depending on the data sources and the impartiality of those analysing it.
Few groups have access to all the detail information to make a true comparison between similar class vehicles.
One such analysis has been done by Volvo (a fully committed EV manufacturer) who produce both the ICE XC40 and the identical XC40 “Recharge” EV, in the same production plant.
They thouroughly analysed the Carbon impact of both vehicles ..Production , use, and recycling, and issued a very detailed report…

https://www.volvocars.com/images/v/-/media/market-assets/intl/applications/dotcom/pdf/ethical-business/volvo_carbonfootprintreport.pdf

…An informative read !
in summary , their conclusions

Note: the “Global energy mix” used assumes a 37% RE content. (more than the Au mix !)
……..the “EU energy mix” used assumes a 60+% RE content .
One of the biggest differences to the EE.EV video, is the initial manufacturing and production Carbon Footprint,… 16 tons for the ICE, and 27 tons for the EV !..practically double compared to 9t and 10.5t respectivly in the EE video.
And to add also that the average distance travelled per vehicle , per year in Australia is 12,000 km..
So, that would imply for us “downunder”,…it would take over 12 years of normal use to equalise that carbon footprint ….and 7.5 yrs for the USA drivers at 12,000miles per year.
Even for those ozzies with full solar or wind recharging facilities, it would take 4 years to break even on carbon emissions.

 

[E-Moto Tuner]

Think I'll be driving my ice vehicles for many years if this is the future for us.
Do like my Electric Motorcycle though for short commutes to work in summer and just having some fun. And it was cheap, which EV autos are not.

Thoughts?

 

[Papa]

Think I'll be driving my ice vehicles for many years if this is the future for us.

So. Cal's EV future?....

How Power Outages Are Affecting California - Bloom Energy

In this interactive map, explore how communities and businesses are affected by California's power outages.

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