gas price thread

[The Toecutter]

Infinite growth on a planet of finite natural resources is simply not possible. I think that is what he was getting at.

That said, finding ways to transport ourselves with an order of magnitude or two reduction in resource usage/cost per mile will allow for a lot of slack just by itself. And doing so doesn't necessarily have to be a form of punishment either, given that it could spawn an era of affordable machines with ridiculous levels of performance that would even put the fastest and most wasteful of musclecars to shame.

The current SUV/CUV/pickup truck fad was a desire created by marketing departments. People with more money than brains believed the advertisements, and spent accordingly. It was inevitable in a society where the only individualism allowed is through consumerism. The U.S. is a nation with only the appearance of rugged individualism, but in actuality is a highly conformist, systemically corrupt scheme at all levels that punishes people who dare to be different. Only rich people are allowed to be individuals. Everyone else is forced to expend their limited time on this Earth to serve those rich peoples' vision, lest they be deemed unworthy of food, shelter, healthcare, ect.

This whole house of cards is destined for collapse at some point. And good riddance.

 

[ZeroEm]

You get it. The crazy thing; how many here live in big cities and get to see the ICE machines sitting or barely moving on the wide freeways. Now just think how much fuel is being used in a 1/4 million machines twice a day. At least get a hybrid.

y The Toecutter » Apr 02 2022 10:33pm

Infinite growth on a planet of finite natural resources is simply not possible. I think that is what he was getting at.

That said, finding ways to transport ourselves with an order of magnitude or two reduction in resource usage/cost per mile will allow for a lot of slack just by itself. And doing so doesn't necessarily have to be a form of punishment either, given that it could spawn an era of affordable machines with ridiculous levels of performance that would even put the fastest and most wasteful of musclecars to shame.

The current SUV/CUV/pickup truck fad was a desire created by marketing departments. People with more money than brains believed the advertisements, and spent accordingly. It was inevitable in a society where the only individualism allowed is through consumerism. The U.S. is a nation with only the appearance of rugged individualism, but in actuality is a highly conformist, systemically corrupt scheme at all levels that punishes people who dare to be different. Only rich people are allowed to be individuals. Everyone else is forced to expend their limited time on this Earth to serve those rich peoples' vision, lest they be deemed unworthy of food, shelter, healthcare, ect.

This whole house of cards is destined for collapse at some point. And good riddance.

 

[JackFlorey]

Just because people are buying them doesn't mean they can afford them.

Of course. You can't legislate common sense.

People will pay whatever they have to and sign the dotted line, to keep from losing everything from not being able to get to work.

And historically people will pay a lot more than they need to to get the car they REALLY want, even if they can't afford it.

That's why cars are averaging $47,000. Not because there are no cheap cars available, but because people really want the Ford F350 or the Chevy Suburban or the BMW. Even lower income people will spend far more than they can afford for a used version of one of those.

This is a bubble waiting to pop

Not really a bubble. A bubble implies something goes up in value, then drops quickly and unexpectedly. ALL cars start out high in value and immediately drop in monetary value quickly.

 

[The Toecutter]

Not really a bubble. A bubble implies something goes up in value, then drops quickly and unexpectedly. ALL cars start out high in value and immediately drop in monetary value quickly.

The used car market is a bubble. Whether it pops depends on whether or not we see hyperinflation. The aberration today is that used cars are selling as much or even more than new ones. In the U.S., this is unprecedented.

 

[Hillhater]

Buying in enough volume to mass produce a car would cut the price by half or more. Tesla is using LiFePO4 in its next Model 3 partially as a cost saving measure over the lithium-cobalt chemistries it has been using. I've read that they're targeting $200/kWh.

Sure, if you say so,.. and folk like Musk have been saying for years that their NMC packs are near $100/kWh !...
......but where are they ?

By staying at a 48V system, you can keep the cost of the electronics way down. There are motor/controller systems that could easily allow a 90+ mph top speed in a streamliner even on such a low voltage. Keeping the car light at under 2,500 lbs, you'd only need ~60 kW peak to accelerate like a low-end ICE car when you consider the torque you'd get from the amount of current needed to achieve that power on 48V as well as a reduced amount of wind resistance slowing down the acceleration as the speed climbs. 0-60 mph ~10-11 seconds would be possible with such a system in a vehicle of the aforementioned mass.

I assume you know that “only” 60kW on 48v, would require 1200+ amps ?
.. which “low cost” 48v , 60kW, motor and controller are you thinking of ?

And rolling at 70mph using just 1 kW will be quite an achievement ...to say the least.!

It wouldn't be new or uncharted territory though. There's no shortage of concept cars running on gasoline from the better part of a century ago onto present day that have done just that. The Volkhart V2 Sagitta had a 0.17 drag coefficient in 1943 and could almost reach 100 mph on a bone-stock 1st gen VW Beetle engine. The auto industry has known how to do this for a LONG time.

A stock VW Beetle engine even back then would have been 20+ kW. !

 

[calab]

Arent you talking about ac motors once you hit those power levels?

Jesse James made an ev on his show decades ago out of tool batteries.
Playing around with 1-4kw's is easier on ebike then multitudes of tens higher ev's.

 

[speedmd]

For the full year, renewables accounted for 83–84% of new power capacity.

https://cleantechnica.com/2022/03/28/83-of-new-power-capacity-in-2021-came-from-renewables-us-power-capacity-report/#:~:text=New%20US%20Power%20Capacity%20by%20Source&text=For%20the%20full%20year%2C%20renewables,capacity%20in%20the%20past%20year.

 

[Hillhater]

For the full year, renewables accounted for 83–84% of new power capacity.

https://cleantechnica.com/2022/03/28/83-of-new-power-capacity-in-2021-came-from-renewables-us-power-capacity-report/#:~:text=New%20US%20Power%20Capacity%20by%20Source&text=For%20the%20full%20year%2C%20renewables,capacity%20in%20the%20past%20year.

.. Not when you factor in the CF of wind and solar ..!
More like 50%.
??But What do you expect with the current level of funding subsidies ?
That is like adding a second bullet into the chamber of the energy “Russian Roulett” gun .!

And probably posted in the wrong thread ...

 

[speedmd]

For the full year, renewables accounted for 83–84% of new power capacity.

https://cleantechnica.com/2022/03/28/83-of-new-power-capacity-in-2021-came-from-renewables-us-power-capacity-report/#:~:text=New%20US%20Power%20Capacity%20by%20Source&text=For%20the%20full%20year%2C%20renewables,capacity%20in%20the%20past%20year.

?? What do you expect with the current level of funding subsidies ?
That is like adding a second bullet into the chamber of the energy “Russian Roulett” gun .!

And probably posted in the wrong thread ...

Yup! You can subsidize the war machines and the oil mafia's mass destruction of the planet and its inhabitants, or take a less grid centric and more humane approach. Or at least live and act like you give a crap.

 

[speedmd]

.
China’s BYD to Stop Producing Fossil-Fueled Vehicles on EV Shift

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-03/china-s-byd-stops-producing-oil-fueled-vehicle-on-ev-shift

 

[Hillhater]

.
China’s BYD to Stop Producing Fossil-Fueled Vehicles on EV Shift

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-03/china-s-byd-stops-producing-oil-fueled-vehicle-on-ev-shift

So they are going to stop producing their top 3 best selling cars are they ? :lol:
You have to look behind the headlines to really see what it means.

 

[Hillhater]

...
....You can subsidize the war machines and the oil mafia's mass destruction of the planet and its inhabitants, or take a less grid centric and more humane approach. Or at least live and act like you give a crap.

Or you can think latterally and invest in a technology that will actually work, rather than just be a virtue signaling waste of money !

 

[JackFlorey]

Have you checked the cost of LFP batteries lately ?
Plenty available commercially, but you will be pushed to find quality cells much under $500/kWh .

BYD/EG4 LFP batteries for behind the meter storage are currently going for $294/kwhr. (5.1kwhr for $1500) Been stable at that price for over a year. And that's with BMS, chassis, cabling etc.

And they are NOT pouch cells.

 

[calab]

It'd sure be nice to invest in companies that invest in clean-tech just how do you find them?

Or you can think latterally and invest in a technology that will actually work, rather than just be a virtue signaling waste of money !

 

[Hillhater]

Have you checked the cost of LFP batteries lately ?
Plenty available commercially, but you will be pushed to find quality cells much under $500/kWh .

BYD/EG4 LFP batteries for behind the meter storage are currently going for $294/kwhr. (5.1kwhr for $1500) Been stable at that price for over a year. And that's with BMS, chassis, cabling etc.

And they are NOT pouch cells.

Link please jack.. you must have a very good supplier .
I dont see any near that price, still none under $500 kWh..
https://www.cleanenergyreviews.info/blog/home-solar-battery-cost-guide
BYDs latest EV cells ARE pouchs (known as the “Blade” cell,...long and narrow !)

 

[speedmd]

.
China’s BYD to Stop Producing Fossil-Fueled Vehicles on EV Shift

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-03/china-s-byd-stops-producing-oil-fueled-vehicle-on-ev-shift

So they are going to stop producing their top 3 best selling cars are they ? :lol:
You have to look behind the headlines to really see what it means.

:lol: I believe they wrote the head line for your brethren. :lol: Unfortunately it appears you failed to see the "writing on the wall" it is attempting to state. ICE only has been officially "unplugged" from their lineup. Even if only superficial at less than 5k of the 300,000 auto's delivered 1st quarter, it is the first significant sized auto maker to do so. Plug in Hybrids will still maintain a significant share until the charging networks mature significantly.

 

[Hillhater]

I believe they wrote the head line for your brethren......

?..? Sorry, you have lost me there ?
The writing may be on the wall , but as i have explained the vast majority of cars on the roads of China, and the rest of the world, will be fossil fueled way after you and i,..and our children,..have departed this life.
So, what is the big deal ?
I would be happy to see EVs become the sales leaders, because they will have to become affordable enough for Mr Average, in order to do that.

 

[speedmd]

I would be happy to see EVs become the sales leaders, because they will have to become affordable enough for Mr Average, in order to do that.

With you on that. Unfortunately, the big players are much too into the money extraction services. :lol:

Possibly, we can only hope for the many good well priced mini's coming soon with smaller packs that can be realistically supported by residential roof top replenishment systems to keep them mostly out of our pockets in the near term. BTW, one analyst I caught yesterday, after reviewing march sales data, raised his forecast to china having as high as 40% EV share by years end.

Other March news bit is most of the ice sales tanked in the USA. VW down 44% YOY. Ouch!

 

[Hillhater]

....... BTW, one analyst I caught yesterday, after reviewing march sales data, raised his forecast to china having as high as 40% EV share by years end. .....

Well anything is possible, we will have to wait and see,.
...but, to achieve that, it would require a 3+ time increase in EV manufacturing capacity !
....And i guess when they say EV , they are including all those BYD PHEVs in those numbers ?
ICE sales in most countries have dropped, mostly because production has been seriously limited by component availability and shipping disruptions.
VW, Toyota, and GM have even shut manufacturing lines until the supply channels can be rebuilt.

 

[JackFlorey]

Link please jack.. you must have a very good supplier .

https://signaturesolar.com/eg4-lifepower4-lithium-battery-48v-100ah/

BYDs latest EV cells ARE pouchs (known as the “Blade” cell,...long and narrow !)

Blade cells are not pouches. They are rigid cases.

 

[JackFlorey]

BTW, one analyst I caught yesterday, after reviewing march sales data, raised his forecast to china having as high as 40% EV share by years end.

I'd believe they will have the DEMAND for 40% EV market share. But they don't have the supply - yet.

 

[calab]

I know who has a supply
A supply of 25,000 gallons of unleaded in regular, mid or max nitro's
Just 300ft away
24/7/365
Countless others scattered theirabouts

 

[Hillhater]

It'd sure be nice to invest in companies that invest in clean-tech just how do you find them?

Or you can think latterally and invest in a technology that will actually work, rather than just be a virtue signaling waste of money !

I was referring to Governments “investing” our tax money more wisely into technologies that will be effective replacements for fossil fuel power generation,....rather than temporary, intermittent , weather dependent , fads that can never fulfil that task.

 

[Hillhater]

Link please jack.. you must have a very good supplier .

https://signaturesolar.com/eg4-lifepower4-lithium-battery-48v-100ah/

Interesting,....and the “bare” cells are even cheaper !
But not BYD ?.. and not suited to traction / EV drive applications at <1C discharge rating.
Any independent tests to verify the specs , lifecycle claims etc ?
Either those EG4 packs are a bargain, or every other supplier is really loading up the prices !
I could not find another source at less than double that cost, most much more than double.
https://www.cleanenergyreviews.info/blog/home-solar-battery-cost-guide

 

[speedmd]

BTW, one analyst I caught yesterday, after reviewing march sales data, raised his forecast to china having as high as 40% EV share by years end.

I'd believe they will have the DEMAND for 40% EV market share. But they don't have the supply - yet.

Agree, it will be supply limited for the foreseeable future. Perfect storm for them to raise prices. Fortunately there are many new manufacturers that will be hungry and need to compete aggressively over a longer shopping window. Should be a treat to watch the development cycle near term.