Wind and Solar vs Coal, Gasoline, Nuclear

Hmmm, looks like SA has been producing power surplus to its needs all morning... And will continue to do so well into the evening.
Yes, there's a gas plant running in the background there, but they are required to have it on.
NEM.JPG
 
Hillhater said:
Pick this up at about 7:21 in for a brief insight on some of the issues wind/solar introduce to a grid system..
https://youtu.be/kU6izpryqqw
Yep,
AEMO is forcing the use of "synchronous condensers" on all new large RE projects as far as I know. Because the power on the grid has become incredibly dirty/noisy from all the dodgy renewables jumping on the grid.

AEMO imposes tough conditions on new wind and solar in Victoria's 'full' grid
https://www.afr.com/news/aemo-imposes-tough-conditions-on-new-wind-and-solar-in-victorias-full-grid-20181012-h16l0h
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Synchronous_condenser
https://www.energymagazine.com.au/synchronous-condensers-support-australias-clean-energy-transformation/

Apparently, the Renewable generators were angry about doing this, since it costs more money to put a synchronous condenser on their wind/solar farms and the fact is clear these renewable generators only want to collect the subsidy money out of the project to make money and don't give a stuff about the environment or even if the noisy power they are dumping on the grid is killing the grid.

But the renewables people went quiet after initially opposing it ( remember seeing a flood of articles on Reneweconomy about how evil AEMO is forcing RE companies to have to install synchronous condenser, but then it stopped) , I guess the RE subsidy miners did the sums and worked out they can still make a lot of money mining the RE subsidies even with having to install a synchronous condenser to actually provide useful power to the grid.

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Depends on the time of year and if SA has a good week or not on their imports or exports, right now SA is importing coal-electricty, but just a tiny bit.
Here are the last 3 days, you can see the purple for victorian coal imports to SA, but weirdly now you can see "gas coloured" exports going to Victoria, I don't know if this is a charting error or Victoria really does now buy SAs gas generation and SA instead elect to use their own wind, this is possible since Victoria has more of its own wind energy now and is probably incentivised to buy and use its own wind compared to SA's.
https://opennem.org.au/#/regions/sa
http://www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/National-Electricity-Market-NEM/Data-dashboard#nem-dispatch-overview
2019-05-13 (2).png
It was June last year when SA had a week with practically no wind (about 6%).
If you carefully look at the SA electricity charts on hot or cold days, you can almost read into the chart see the general population refusing to use the grid power despite getting really hot or cold, simply because the cost of electricity is too much.
If they wanted to work out how much they should charge for electricity so folks won't use it to stay comfortable unless they really have to, they found that point with SA.

Choosing not to use electricity to stay arguably only "remotely comfortable" because the cost is too high reflects the lifestyle of people of the 3rd world.
Reminds me if this interesting interview with this PhD scientist on his belief on how lowing the IQ of a nation by a mere average of 5 points can have dramatic effects in the well-being and general costs of living for the whole society
https://youtu.be/Zsh_b70NSFQ
^To me, this seems to be happening in Australia.

SA really has at best average 1500MW of power requirements, you can see it visually or you can take the MWh's consumed annually and average it by total hours in a year and see its about 1400MW.
So with SA having 2142MW total of wind-farms online now, it really does have well over "100% renewables", in installed capacity, so does Germany.
https://anero.id/energy/wind-energy
With SA at about 150% wind capacity installed, it's clear that the general gains of building any more would be small, especially if Victoria doesn't want to buy it because it wants to build/buy from its own new wind-farms.

Fact is, both of these states still emit about 10 times more co2 than France based nuclear, on an average basis.

We have all gone over this, in circles. It really comes down to this, some people are going to look at Germany/SA's setup at 10 times more co2 on average and say "yes I am OK with that, simply because I like renewables more than Nuclear, and I don't really care what the truth is", while others will say something else about it.

And Lithium battery storage isn't a solution, battery storage doesn't create any power, it just stores power, because of the incredible amount of co2 released in lithium storage manufacturing, it is about 10 years worth of just buying fossil fuel for energy generation, as proven consistently with EV cars.
https://www.thegwpf.com/electric-vehicles-emit-more-co2-than-diesel-ones-german-study-shows/
The natural "cheaper solution" is just to burn fossil fuel to produce the energy, the natural high cost of lithium cells forces the reality of the relationship between co2 emissions intensity to create something just for storage vs just using that money to burn fossil fuels.

Batteries cannot make renewables reliable
https://www.cfact.org/2019/04/26/batteries-cannot-make-renewables-reliable/
https://stopthesethings.com/2019/05/09/batteries-not-included-trillions-spent-on-storage-wont-save-intermittent-wind-solar/
battery-is-dud.jpg


Supermassive artificial hydro electricity batteries made out of concrete, like in the style of swimming pools are not viable, because of all the concrete construction costs and thus energy to create such a storage facility makes it unviable, if we did make super massive concrete swimming pools it would be clear there was far more energy to create it than was worthwhile.
Lithium storage on the grid is the exact same problem, its just an invisible problem.
Lithium grid storage is just co2 displacement, making pre-emissions, thus making the emissions invisible.

Almost all hydro is geologically pre-made, this was given for free, if there weren't a large pocket to hold water naturally formed it wouldn't be worthwhile.

The worlds biggest lithium battery from Tesla is in the electricity chart above, the Tesla battery's power was dumped into the grid in full power when SA imported coal electricity in the purple colour part, the problem is Teslas "huge battery" is so tiny that its almost impossible to actually see it on the charts any more. 30MW on a 2000MW chart is a few pixels of colour.

https://hornsdalepowerreserve.com.au/
^You can see the worlds biggest lithium grid battery from Tesla here (scroll down to see the charge/discharge chart), still constantly dumping 30MW of power to keep things stable.
It used to be common that you would see it dump 30MW for up to 4 hours (its 129MWh battery) but lately its been very short bursts.
It's possible the Tesla battery is already showing signs of wearing out and they have changed its usage profile to just very short bursts of 30MW instead of more extended discharges at 30MW that were quite frequent.
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The UK celebrated a week without using coal, but it has just been replaced with gas, so its still 10 times more co2 on average than France being on nuclear.
Also note that the UK imports a remarkable about of Frances nuclear via undersea grid cable, 2000MW of nuclear from France,
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-07/u-k-sets-record-for-life-without-coal-as-green-power-grows
https://www.electricitymap.org/?wind=false&solar=false&page=country&countryCode=GB&remote=true
Despite all this, Eleciticitymap looks terrible for actually having co2 emissions they could be proud of, it looks like there hasn't been any wind on the UK for almost a week.
If we were comparing co2 emissions of these countries like with cars than the UK would be considered a complete joke with a 10 times more co2 emissions "renewable energy car" vs the "nuclear energy car" from France.

Also, note that Electricitymap is dubiously unable to show any of Australia right now, its been like this for a few days, obviously someone doesn't want Australia's electricity usage viable on elecitrictymap for this upcoming election this weekend. People love to look at SA on Electrictymap and laugh at the results of South Australia wind/solar/battery grid compared to nuclear based France.

Also, remember what this is all about. We should all be listening to scientists who have a PhD in Ecological Climatology, worked for the IPCC, along with Nobel awarding prize work. The only difference between this guy and other scientists who work for the IPCC is they smear the facts saying it's just a "hiatus" or "pause" in warming etc.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fA5sGtj7QKQ
[youtube]fA5sGtj7QKQ[/youtube]
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EU dragged to court for backing forest biomass as ‘renewable energy’
https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy/news/eu-dragged-to-court-for-backing-forest-biomass-as-renewable-energy/
 
sendler2112 said:
from the article:
"According the Australian Energy Market 2017 Residential Electricity Price Trends report, South Australia does indeed have the highest retail prices in the nation. Current prices for the typical SA customer are 37.79c/kWh."

Also from the article:

"It’s true that South Australia has the highest retail electricity prices in Australia (although not in the world)."

"Austalia" ≠ "the world"

Notice something about the chart you posted of the cost of electricity in different countries? There is a general trend of the richer the country, the higher the cost of electricity. Which is freaking obvious, because EVERYTHING costs more in a rich country, especially when it's all done in USD!. Again, from the article:

"Because of differences in tax structures and energy systems, it’s no simple matter to compare energy and electricity prices between countries.

A 2017 Australian Competition and Consumer Commission report compared retail electricity prices among countries in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

Australian prices were in the lower end of the range, but above the OECD total. While SA prices are above the Australian national average, they would still not be the most expensive in the OECD on a purchasing power parity basis."

Note: "purchasing power parity".

Hillhater said:
Your reference article is “political retoric”..
S Australias high electricity prices and the causes of that,..are well known facts .

It appears to be a fact checking piece, with data, facts, figures, references etc. I suspect you interpret it as partisan because it doesn't agree with your political views (which have become quite obvious). Your "well known facts" seem to be the same sort Trump uses. I'd say offer your rebuttal of the statements in the article, but you've already accused the regulator, the AEMO of being part of a conspiracy, so there's likely little point.

When are you people going to get the simple message that climate huge is a Word-wide issue that absolutely transcends national politics? Nobody gives a flying f**k if you're a supporter of the Australian Labour Party, the US Republicans or anything else. I suppose it's very hard for some people not to let their personal political views to colour every thought they ever have.
 
Hillhater said:
If SA had installed just one modern coal plant instead of all the mess of wind and solar spread around the state, they would . . .
. . . now have even higher power prices. Coal is currently one of the most expensive forms of grid power available.
 
Hillhater said:
billvon said:
..... Coal is currently one of the most expensive forms of grid power available.
Utter B.S.
From Lazard 2018:

Onshore wind $29-$56
Utility scale solar $36-$44
Combined cycle gas $41-$74
Coal $60-$143
Nuclear $112-$189

https://www.lazard.com/perspective/levelized-cost-of-energy-and-levelized-cost-of-storage-2018/
 
Hillhater said:
perhaps you might prefer tto spend some time figuring an explanation as to why the UK’s largest thermal generator has been persuaded to switch from coal to a fuel that produces over twice the CO2 per Mwh ?..whils claiming its for CO2 reduction ??

Ah, Drax Power Station. Once ~4GW of smokey coal-fired goodness, now 2/3 biomass fired with the remaining 1/3 earmarked for conversion to combined cycle gas turbines along with 200 MW of battery storage. It's currently capturing 1 ton/day of CO2 in a BECCS pilot, which if scaled would increase to 40,000 tons/day (90% capture rate).

Biomass is a questionable form of renewable energy, depending on how it's source. Coal is not.
 
billvon said:
From Lazard 2018:

The point is, there are other huge ancillary costs to adding high amounts of intermittent generation to any grid which are obviously not reflected in the Lazard data that wind gets paid whenever it happens to be windy. Such as the requirement to maintain a near 100% capacity of dispatchable thermal/ hydro that must be paid to sit idle just waiting for it's chance to earn money.
 
Punx0r said:
It's currently capturing 1 ton/day of CO2 in a BECCS pilot, which if scaled would increase to 40,000 tons/day (90% capture rate).

So all they have to do is scale it up 40,000 X from the current level of hardware. Good luck.
 
jonescg said:
Hmmm, looks like SA has been producing power surplus to its needs all morning... And will continue to do so well into the evening.
Yes, there's a gas plant running in the background there, but they are required to have it on.

:lol: so one momentary data point paints a rosey picture to you ??
Dont you find it convenient that that one data point is 2 pm ?
Well look again...it isnt very rosey and It didnt last long,..,(until 6 pm)..and those Gas plants (several) “running in the background”. Were actually producing power to fill the shortfall between Wind/solar production, and the demand .!
Without the Gas plants running the lights would be out , or more cheaper coal power imports needed from Victoria !
AND.. have a little think as to why SA didnt keep their gas plants generating after 10pm when they could have still been “self generating” instead of continuing to import that cheap coal power from Victoria ?? :wink:
AE9RYI.png
 
Punx0r said:
Notice something about the chart you posted of the cost of electricity in different countries? There is a general trend of the richer the country, the higher the cost of electricity. Which is freaking obvious, because EVERYTHING costs more in a rich country, especially when it's all done in USD!. Again, from the article:
USA is the richest country in the world and has among the lowest electricity price. Except for California which has a high percentage of solar and much higher electricity price.
.
Building out as much wind and solar (and electrification of everything) as we can in the time that we have left using the seed corn of our current fossil fuel bonanza is indeed crucial. But it won't be cheaper at the household than the technology that is already established due to the incentives that are required, new interconnects that are required, back up baseload support that is required.
 
Punx0r said:
Hillhater said:
perhaps you might prefer tto spend some time figuring an explanation as to why the UK’s largest thermal generator has been persuaded to switch from coal to a fuel that produces over twice the CO2 per Mwh ?..whils claiming its for CO2 reduction ??

Ah, Drax Power Station. Once ~4GW of smokey coal-fired goodness, now 2/3 biomass fired with the remaining 1/3 earmarked for conversion to combined cycle gas turbines along with 200 MW of battery storage. It's currently capturing 1 ton/day of CO2 in a BECCS pilot, which if scaled would increase to 40,000 tons/day (90% capture rate).

Biomass is a questionable form of renewable energy, depending on how it's source. Coal is not.
Either you believe in the IPCC CO2 theory or you dont ! :?:
If you do , then you have to also accept what they predict in that the next 10 years are critical for CO2 reduction.
Drax type biomass conversions results in more than 2X the CO2 than retaining coal fueling,..and increases the costs further ( even before considering CCS development )....and that is just the CO2 from the generation.
Taking into consideration the reduction in forestry CO2 “sink” capacity from harvesting the “fuel”, .. then its a double whammy for for climatology.
Somebody need to get their story straight !
 
sendler2112 said:
Such as the requirement to maintain a near 100% capacity of dispatchable thermal/ hydro that must be paid to sit idle just waiting for it's chance to earn money.

Horseshit.

Do you know how much back up gas and coal plants require?

sendler2112 said:
So all they have to do is scale it up 40,000 X from the current level of hardware. Good luck.

Well done on computing that. Of course no successful large venture ever started from a small pilot.

If only you'd been around to tell Thomas Newcomen his 15 kW steam pump engine was a waste of time because it would have to scale 118,000 times to become one of the steam turbines built for the Hinkley Point C nuclear plant.
 
Hillhater said:
If you do , then you have to also accept what they predict in that the next 10 years are critical for CO2 reduction.
Drax type biomass conversions results in more than 2X the CO2 than retaining coal fueling,..and increases the costs further ( even before considering CCS development )....and that is just the CO2 from the generation.

Amazing. You recently made the exact same claim about EVs and their batteries.

What's your strategy? Fling enough shit until something sticks?
 
It’s a Public Service I do...
Making sure you are informed of the true facts ..!
No charge, it’s all free ! :wink:

And...no, its not the same as the battery discussion.
The situation there was that an EV battery pumps ALL its CO2 ..(several years worth of “ICE equivalent”, depending on who’s figures you believe ).. into the atmosphere all in one go..during manufacture.
Biomass just produces double the CO2 constantly , 24/7/365.......smart ?
 
Hillhater said:
Either you believe in the IPCC CO2 theory or you dont ! :?:
If you do , then you have to also accept what they predict in that the next 10 years are critical for CO2 reduction.
Drax type biomass conversions results in more than 2X the CO2 than retaining coal fueling,..and increases the costs further ( even before considering CCS development )....and that is just the CO2 from the generation.
Taking into consideration the reduction in forestry CO2 “sink” capacity from harvesting the “fuel”, .. then its a double whammy for for climatology.
Somebody need to get their story straight !

Biomass is not fossil carbon and if you don't understand why that makes all the difference, then you shouldn't even be in this debate. I'm not saying biomass is the answer; it has drawbacks for other reasons.
 
jimw1960 said:
Biomass is not fossil carbon and if you don't understand why that makes all the difference, then you shouldn't even be in this debate. I'm not saying biomass is the answer; it has drawbacks for other reasons.
I fully understand the difference,..
( i also understand the “commercial” reasons why biomass is an attractive option !)
...but you obviously do not realise why it makes NO DIFFERENCE to the concept of CO2 increase in the atmosphere over the next few decades !.
..which , according to the IPCC/Green/ alarmist/ CAGW/etc,etc...agenda ,...is the critical period.
Infact Biomass is worse (in IPCC theory) than Fossil burning, because it is “Front Loading” its CO2 content, and destroying Carbon “Sink” capacity, in a period when we are repeatedly told we should be eliminating CO2
 
Hillhater said:
Either you believe in the IPCC CO2 theory or you dont ! :?:
If you do , then you have to also accept what they predict in that the next 10 years are critical for CO2 reduction.
Drax type biomass conversions results in more than 2X the CO2 than retaining coal fueling . . .
Wow. Just . . . wow.

Here in the US, Trump has come right out and said that he loves the poorly educated. There must be a similar sentiment in Australia.
 
Hillhater said:
Taking another cheap shot at someone with a message you dont want to hear , bill ?
Nope. Just amazed that you think that biomass releases net CO2. But then, from what you've posted, you have some pretty tight blinders on; it doesn't surprise me that you'd believe that.
 
sendler2112 said:
Limits to growth in 1972 was pretty accurate.
Projections for global famine in the 1970's were pretty accurate in 1969 - until 1975 rolled around.
Projections for peak oil were pretty accurate in 1980 - until 2010 (most common peak oil prediction) rolled around.

It's easy to predict that everything will keep going the way it is. Predicting the inflection point is what's hard. Once you have a model that accurately does that, people will pay more attention.
 
billvon said:
Just amazed that you think that biomass releases net CO2. ...
Well. In that case you should be able to explain how cutting down forests, and burning the timber , is better for atmospheric CO2 , than coal in the short , near, or medium term ( <50 yrs) ?
....rather than wasting keyboard effort attacking the messenger ! :roll:
 
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