gas price thread

[speedmd]

At last months rate of change, EV should be at some 70% in as little as two years. Diesel sales very low. Computer chips in diesels? :lol:

 

[JackFlorey]

Either those EG4 packs are a bargain, or every other supplier is really loading up the prices !

We're in a market now where prices are dropping fast. I got some Pylontech batteries for an experiment right before I found out about these. The Pylontechs were $358/kwhr and they were, at the time, the cheapest assembled LFP batteries out there.

 

[ZeroEm]

I'm sure that we heard this before but made the Local news again. Toyota has entered into a joint venture with GM to produce EV's and phase out all ICE by 2035. Last year or two Toyota had not planned to move away from ICE. The pressure must be one.

 

[Hillhater]

I'm sure that we heard this before but made the Local news again. Toyota has entered into a joint venture with GM to produce EV's and phase out all ICE by 2035. Last year or two Toyota had not planned to move away from ICE. The pressure must be one.

The POLITICAL pressure is certainly on,...but we will have to wait to see what MARKET pressure does to influence that.
Manufacturers can only sell what the public wants to buy.
And, “phase out all ICEs by 2035”... is another headline attention grab, which at best will only apply to the PRODUCTION of certain classes of ICEs,.. not every ICE powered vehicle.
I do not believe Toyota will stop production of their successful Hybrid ranges either !

 

[Hillhater]

We're in a market now where prices are dropping fast.....

So what has changed since that 2021 cost review that i posted, ...to cause prices to drop by 50+% ?
Is there some surplus of supply over demand ?

 

[calab]

It is an illusion for a money grab, the cover is The Ukrainian war, but the dip in prices is an illusion too, just wait for the next big news cycle. Where is the commander and chief in a desperate time of need? I want to see a strong face on the screen, one that does not mix words up, strong type that does not waiver, I want to see some stone cold eye balls piercing the screen, eye balls that mean business, focused eyeballs, one who says what he means and means what he says. A person who's every word is calculated and measured, said with purpose.

 

[speedmd]

What is the price of gas in Norway? WHO CARES! :lol:

Model Sales Market Shares
1 Tesla Model Y 3,305 20,4 %
2 Tesla Model 3 1,696 10,4 %
3 Volkswagen ID.4 1,111 6,8 %
4 Audi Q4 e-tron 667 4,1 %
5 Hyundai IONIQ 5 591 3,6 %
6 BMW iX 562 3,5 %
7 Polestar 2 549 3,4 %
8 Volvo XC40 386 2,0 %
9 Audi e-tron 359 2,2 %
10 Nissan Leaf 327 2,0 %

 

[Hillhater]

How many EVs sold in Norway ?......who cares !
It is a tiny, insignificant, distorted market.
...look at the numbers,.. Top selling car, Tesla3, just 3,200 ! Fo a full year !
..Total market sales 2021, 176,000 !
And of course there are the incentives to buy EVs, and the massive sales tax on ICEs making them too expensive for joe average.
And , yes fuel tax is extortionate ($10+/gal), and electricity is cheap ($0.13/kWh)
All of which are politically manipulated market factors to force a specific fake result .

 

[liveforphysics]

I would say the dangerous and fake result my friend is using ~5.9Trillion dollars (5,900 Billion$) of petroleum subsides yearly to generate a false gasoline market price.

13Billion global EV subsidies (which should be $0) vs $5,900Billion in fossil fuel subsidies (which also should be $0). I wouldn't complain about the 0.22% of subsidies spent towards a survivable atmosphere, and focus your disgust on that 99.78% of money going oil/gas/coal companies to burn more things faster.

https://e360.yale.edu/digest/fossil-fuels-received-5-9-trillion-in-subsidies-in-2020-report-finds#:~:text=Coal%2C%20oil%2C%20and%20natural%20gas,8%20percent%20of%20the%20total.

 

[Hillhater]

Whilst i agree that only essential services and commodities should be subsidised where necessary, and that it would be ideal to avoid using oil and coal,....i certainly cannot agree that fossil fuels are “subsidised “ to the level suggested.
If , as stated, that “99% of coal is priced at half its true cost “....and with wholesale prices at $100-150/ ton,., then that would suggest that its true cost is $200-300 per ton. Now, since i have seen documentation of costings for coal extraction putting a cost of <$30/ton to the mine gate,...i fail to see where in their “implicit subsidies”, the remaining $200+/ton is incurred.
What should be realised is the real VALUE of fossil fuels to our lives.
What we need is a major crisis in a prominent location, state, or country, where suddenly there is no fossil fuel power available,..No electricity, no fuel for cars or generators, no gas for heating or power,... !
Then you can realise the true value of fossils and how much subsidies you may be prepared to pay for them.
The corpse count from such a situation would exceed any “losses to human life from local air pollution and excessive and road congestion and accidents,” ...perceived from fossil fuel use.
If Germany had the balls to cut off their gas supply from Russia, we might get a taste of that senario.
If you follow the international news of what is happening in normally placid Srilanka where there are major fuel and power shortages, the resulting social upheaval has already collapsed the government, with street battles and worse to come.
Careful what you wish for in that idealistic, “Green New Deal” world.
But Any report that is based on the assumption that CO2 is the cause of climate change, has no credibility in my mind!

 

[Hillhater]

At last months rate of change, EV should be at some 70% in as little as two years. Diesel sales very low. Computer chips in diesels? :lol:

So, what was last months rate of change ..?
.....oh yes i see it now. It actually fell from 18% share in Feb to 16% in March ..!
And a full 10% below Decembers 26% share !
... so how do you predict the dramatic increase in the future ??
Ahh !, The magic of %s when you need to hide the details .
But, but,... By that graphic, 84% of registrations were vehicles with ICE engines .
And Yes, diesels have computers too !

 

[ZeroEm]

Everyone seems confused about diesels. Guessing at why the sales are falling. It's that we found out that the emissions are toxic and can not be cleaned up without turning it into a paper weight.

 

[speedmd]

At last months rate of change, EV should be at some 70% in as little as two years. Diesel sales very low. Computer chips in diesels? :lol:

So, what was last months rate of change ..?
.....oh yes i see it now. It actually fell from 18% share in Feb to 16% in March ..!
And a full 10% below Decembers 26% share !
... so how do you predict the dramatic increase in the future ??
Ahh !, The magic of %s when you need to hide the details .
But, but,... By that graphic, 84% of registrations were vehicles with ICE engines .
And Yes, diesels have computers too !

You can gather the monthly data if you need. Its public. Just looked at year over year data. My best guess. The chart is reasonably clear that your 84 percent claim is wrong. My diesel is mechanical and comment was meant as a joke as symbolized by the :lol: Forgot that some folks have not even the smallest sense of humor. Some are like talking with a room full of accountants.

Some market watchers are now openly suggesting that Chip shortages by some are being used to hide the crash in demand some of the majors are seeing across the board. Will be a interesting year and I am glad I am not working for-with legacy auto.

 

[Hillhater]

......The chart is reasonably clear that your 84 percent claim is wrong.

The chart is very clear..
Only 16% of sales were BEVs......the rest all had ICE engines, ..
IE, Hybrids, Plug in Hybrids, Petrol, and Diesels......making up the majority 84%
So where am i wrong ?
..and your comment was specific ..” at last months rate of change”...which is clearly shown on the same Cleantechnica page.
But even using you now preferred yoy rate of 7.7% ( ref that CT page) ....how do you conclude it can go from 16% to 70% in 2 years ??
You are only fooling yourself !

 

[neptronix]

Looks like another round of sanctions towards Russia is incoming from the USA and EU.

EVs and other efficient transport are about to become much more interesting. :lol:

 

[Hillhater]

Looks like another round of sanctions towards Russia is incoming from the USA and EU.

EVs and other efficient transport are about to become much more interesting. :lol:

You think ?
Much of Europe, especially Germany, Poland, etc , rely heavily on Russian gas for Electricity, so there will be power shortages.
Germany has already said schools, hospitals, domestic heating, etc will be prioritised over industry and non essential use.
Tesla Berlin and VW have already said they will probably have to shut down as they use gas heavily.
Power shortages will hit charge points also.
Oil/petrol/diesel, is much easier to import in volume from other foreign sources , than gas for power plants.

 

[neptronix]

Then that will also create a huge government incentive to invest in clean energy production, because the pain can only be cured that way.

You need acceptable electricity prices regardless of whether you're adopting EVs or not for transportation.

The electric world is about to see massive investments world wide.

 

[Ianhill]

Then that will also create a huge government incentive to invest in clean energy production, because the pain can only be cured that way.

You need acceptable electricity prices regardless of whether you're adopting EVs or not for transportation.

The electric world is about to see massive investments world wide.

The investments have gone to the military if you look germany has become 3rd largest military spender behind china and good old u.s of a hole.

Things are gonna get nasty and prolonged, wheat is one example expect to pay more for bread etc even if you dont use the supply chain of grain they produce.

While we bicker over powering the chariot to the shops the real pain is felt in poverty stricken areas that need that wheat from the 3rd and 8th largest suppliers going at it.

The british anti tank rockets are causing havoc on the game russia has had to tap out of kiev and focus in crimea, see how that works out over time putin is really crap as a leader, he held a 9/11 event in 1999 to go after neo nazis and get support as the nation didnt want him but then he continues war efforts and money roles in so they turn a blind eye.

Problem is he is highlighted in bingo marker now a wanted man the worlds a changing place his way of control is failing against the new methods of spreading information he placed himself within an ivory tower and believed he was untouchable, how wrong he is same for china.

For china to be the new world order they must be military and monetary more powerful than america they have more numbers for the army but the economy is gonna get a great reset allowing the dollar to stay incontrol of the sinking ship for longer.

The days of empires aint so easy these days it cant be so obvious as the british made it and the days of Americas oil dollar are slowing something has to give and change, bring on the great reset its an American idea and im sure of it.

 

[speedmd]

..and your comment was specific ..” at last months rate of change”...which is clearly shown on the same Cleantechnica page.
But even using you now preferred yoy rate of 7.7% ( ref that CT page) ....how do you conclude it can go from 16% to 70% in 2 years ??
You are only fooling yourself !

Anyone's guess what the future holds. The march over march more than doubled. Double again over the next two years would be mid 60% region in spring of 2024. It looks to me to be a bit pessimistic to suggest it would take 3 full years extrapolated that way.

 

[speedmd]

Canada's 2022 Auto Survey. 71 per cent would consider buying an EV the next time they buy a vehicle.
Needs point to known need for charging capabilities and most demanding 400km range.

https://home.kpmg/ca/en/home/insights/2022/01/kpmg-2022-auto-poll.html

 

[ZeroEm]

We adopted ICE before gasoline stations were at all corners. News commented that gasoline prices may stay up for two years. That will give EV's a shot in the arm.

 

[JackFlorey]

Much of Europe, especially Germany, Poland, etc , rely heavily on Russian gas for Electricity, so there will be power shortages.
Germany has already said schools, hospitals, domestic heating, etc will be prioritised over industry and non essential use.

Agreed. Look for solar and wind to explode in popularity as a way to use less natural gas.

 

[Hillhater]

Then that will also create a huge government incentive to invest in clean energy production, because the pain can only be cured that way.

You need acceptable electricity prices regardless of whether you're adopting EVs or not for transportation.

The electric world is about to see massive investments world wide.

Germany already has Europes largest installation of Wind and Solar, (100+ GW) ..but it still cannot function without continuous input from Gas, Coal, and Nuclear, because of frequent “wind droughts” for days and weeks.
Coincidently, Germany also has Europes highest electricity costs !
And , due to their “Green” leadership, they are continuing to shut down the only clean energy source that could solve the problem..Nuclear plants. putin has them by the short and curlies !
The only major European country to not panic is France , who have mostly Nuclear power generation.

 

[Hillhater]

Much of Europe, especially Germany, Poland, etc , rely heavily on Russian gas for Electricity, so there will be power shortages.
Germany has already said schools, hospitals, domestic heating, etc will be prioritised over industry and non essential use.

Agreed. Look for solar and wind to explode in popularity as a way to use less natural gas.

Solar is not very effective in northern Europe..and no good most places at night.
Wind has been hugely installed in germany (60 +GW), but it also has failed due to the unpredicability and inconsistency of the weather.
Infact, both are recieving a lot of resistance to further expansion both socially and financially ( its costing too much for too little return !)
The UK , who have been big and loud for wind power, are now planning multiple new Nuclear plants for energy security.

 

[Hillhater]

..and your comment was specific ..” at last months rate of change”...which is clearly shown on the same Cleantechnica page.
But even using you now preferred yoy rate of 7.7% ( ref that CT page) ....how do you conclude it can go from 16% to 70% in 2 years ??
You are only fooling yourself !

Anyone's guess what the future holds. The march over march more than doubled. Double again over the next two years would be mid 60% region in spring of 2024.

Ha !, so you think EV sales will double year on year....an exponential rate of increase?